Patriots @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sun, Oct 1, 2023, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Dallas Cowboys

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New England Patriots

1-2 · Power #29

final

Final

Dallas Cowboys

2-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

NE 14–20 DAL

✓ DAL (72%) won

Loading the recap…

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE –––	0-0	—	—	—
DAL –––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: NE away; DAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE –––	0-0	—	1-2
DAL –––	0-0	—	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NElast 3	1-2 33%	0-0 —	0-0 —
DALlast 3	2-1 67%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 6–2 DAL NE leads · 8 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE0.0 →+4.3▲ 4.3#8

DAL+9.1 →+8.1▼ 1.0#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

DAL

#21

Offense

DAL better ▶

#10

Defense

Even

−0.7 #24

Turnovers

DAL better ▶

+2.0 #1

73 plays #2

Pace

Even

71 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: DAL defense

	NE off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #25	12.7 #3	DAL
Yards / play	4.72 #24	4.79 #10	DAL
EPA / play	−0.10 #20	−0.27 #3	DAL
Success rate	44% #14	40% #10	Even

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #6	19.7 #10	Even
Yards / play	4.99 #16	4.43 #4	NE
EPA / play	+0.06 #7	−0.11 #11	Even
Success rate	45% #10	39% #4	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	1.0 #27	8.0 #11	9.0 #22	1.0 #30	7.3 #13	8.3 #23
DAL allowed	3.0 #11	7.3 #19	10.3 #16	0.0 #1	2.3 #2	2.3 #1

DAL scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	8.7 #1	9.3 #7	18.0 #4	5.3 #10	5.3 #24	10.7 #18
NE allowed	6.3 #25	5.7 #8	12.0 #20	1.0 #3	6.7 #17	7.7 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.