Steelers @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sun, Sep 24, 2023, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

1-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

1-1 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

LV -1.5

✓ PIT W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 28–30 LV

✗ LV (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -1.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLV -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -1.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 1.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 23–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 53%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.8 against an average line of 2.3; 43.8 points a game (usually 45.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SEA vs ATL 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	23–27	L	O43.5
Very close	MIA vs IND 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	17–27	L	O42
Close	NYG vs WSH 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-2	20–19	L	U42.5
Close	NYJ vs JAX 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	26–21	W	O43
Close	CHI vs DET 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & rest	-3	24–14	W	U41.5
Close	HOU vs NYJ 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-3	14–21	L	U44.5
Close	PIT vs NYJ 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total	-3	20–24	L	O41.5
Close	NYJ vs DEN 2020 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-1	28–37	L	O41
Close	ATL vs PIT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-1	16–19	L	U42.5
Loose	IND vs TEN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-4	17–24	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT ––	0-0	—	—	—
LV WL	1-1	50%	—	—

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; LV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT ––	0-0	—	1-1
LV U–	0-1	0%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITlast 2	1-1 50%	0-0 —	0-0 —
LVlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 8–7 LV PIT leads · 15 games since 2000 · PIT has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−7.9 →−4.2▲ 3.7#28

LV0.0 →−1.4▼ 1.4#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

PIT

Longer bar = better

#29

Offense

LV better ▶

#21

#18

Defense

◀ PIT better

#27

+0.5 #16

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−2.0 #31

57 plays #27

Pace

◀ PIT faster

47 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #26	27.0 #25	Even
Yards / play	4.33 #28	5.38 #20	LV
EPA / play	−0.37 #32	+0.17 #30	Even
Success rate	34% #30	53% #32	Even

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	13.5 #32	26.0 #23	PIT
Yards / play	5.33 #11	5.44 #22	LV
EPA / play	−0.02 #15	−0.05 #14	Even
Success rate	40% #26	42% #14	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 26 teams

PIT scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.5	8.0	11.5	1.5	3.5	5.0
LV allowed	6.5	10.5	17.0	3.5	6.5	10.0

LV scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	7.0	3.0	10.0	0.0	3.5	3.5
PIT allowed	6.5	10.5	17.0	7.5	1.5	9.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.