Ravens @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

5-2 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Arizona Cardinals

1-6 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

BAL -9.5

✓ ARI W

Total

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 29–19 ARI

✓ BAL (81%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -9.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAL -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -9.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 9.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: BAL won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 45, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 9.4; 53.9 points a game (usually 46.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ PHI 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	30–28	L	O46.5
Very close	PIT @ JAX 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	27–3	W	U47.5
Close	NO @ PHI 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-8	21–24	L	O42.5
Close	PHI @ CHI 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-9	25–20	L	U48
Close	CIN @ NYJ 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	31–34	L	O43
Close	TEN @ HOU 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	28–25	L	O42.5
Close	SF @ LV 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-10	37–34	L	O41.5
Close	LAC @ HOU 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	29–41	L	O45.5
Close	LAR @ WSH 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-7	30–10	W	U45
Close	KC @ DEN 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	34–28	L	O44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL –––WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
ARI –––LL	1-2	33%	—	1-2

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL –––UO	1-1	50%	5-2
ARI –––UU	0-3	0%	1-6

Went over in Q4. Of 10 earlier overs in games with totals 42–48, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALlast 7	5-2 71%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%
ARIlast 7	1-6 14%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BAL 6–1 ARI BAL leads · 7 games since 2000 · BAL has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+2.2 →+4.3▲ 2.1#3

ARI−0.4 →−3.5▼ 3.1#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BAL

Longer bar = better

ARI

Offense

◀ BAL better

#22

Defense

◀ BAL better

#29

−0.1 #17

Turnovers

ARI better ▶

+0.4 #11

64 plays #15

Pace

◀ BAL faster

62 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #10	26.0 #26	BAL
Yards / play	5.68 #6	5.70 #29	BAL
EPA / play	+0.04 #10	+0.08 #30	BAL
Success rate	48% #5	50% #32	BAL

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	ARI off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	18.1 #24	13.9 #1	BAL
Yards / play	5.19 #15	4.13 #1	BAL
EPA / play	−0.09 #22	−0.18 #3	BAL
Success rate	40% #27	38% #3	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	7.9 #2	7.0 #16	14.9 #6	5.1 #8	4.4 #26	9.6 #18
ARI allowed	5.3 #22	5.9 #7	11.1 #14	5.3 #23	9.6 #31	14.9 #29

ARI scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	3.6 #20	10.3 #3	13.9 #8	3.3 #22	1.0 #32	4.3 #32
BAL allowed	0.9 #1	4.1 #3	5.0 #1	2.9 #8	5.6 #15	8.4 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.