Steelers @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sun, Oct 22, 2023, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff74°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

3-2 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Rams

3-3 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

LAR -3.5

✓ PIT W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 23–27 LAR

✗ LAR (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAR -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 3.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 24–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 3.6; 41.4 points a game (usually 46.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SEA vs CAR 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	24–30	L	O44
Very close	CIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	41–10	W	O44
Very close	JAX vs NYG 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	17–23	L	U43.5
Close	CAR vs WSH 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-3	21–27	L	O43
Close	MIN vs CHI 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–17	W	O45
Close	NYG vs DET 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-3	18–31	L	O44.5
Close	NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	7–10	L	U41.5
Close	CLE vs PIT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & team ratings	-5	10–15	L	U43
Close	PHI vs TEN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	35–10	W	O44.5
Close	TEN vs MIA 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	34–3	W	U41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT ––W––	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
LAR ––––W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT ––U––	0-1	0%	3-2
LAR ––––U	0-1	0%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITlast 5	3-2 60%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%
LARlast 6	3-3 50%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 5–1 LAR PIT leads · 6 games since 2003 · PIT has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−7.9 →−2.2▲ 5.7#24

LAR+7.8 →+1.5▼ 6.3#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

PIT

Longer bar = better

LAR

#30

Offense

LAR better ▶

#19

Defense

LAR better ▶

#15

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.2 #19

59 plays #28

Pace

LAR faster ▶

66 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	PIT off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #30	19.5 #12	LAR
Yards / play	4.55 #27	5.17 #18	LAR
EPA / play	−0.20 #29	−0.03 #17	LAR
Success rate	35% #32	41% #11	LAR

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #12	22.0 #20	LAR
Yards / play	5.56 #7	5.56 #24	LAR
EPA / play	+0.08 #6	−0.07 #12	LAR
Success rate	46% #9	44% #18	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.8 #24	5.0 #25	7.8 #27	3.8 #18	4.2 #27	8.0 #26
LAR allowed	3.3 #8	7.0 #15	10.3 #11	3.5 #15	5.7 #15	9.2 #14

LAR scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	6.2 #9	5.5 #22	11.7 #16	4.3 #13	6.0 #18	10.3 #13
PIT allowed	7.4 #32	6.0 #10	13.4 #23	3.0 #12	5.6 #14	8.6 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.