49ers @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Mon, Oct 23, 2023, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

5-1 · Power #1

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

2-4 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -6.5

✓ MIN W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 28–22 MIN

✗ SF (72%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -6.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -6.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 6.5-point road favorite at MIN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIN won 22–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 6.7; 45.6 points a game (usually 47.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI @ NYG 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	48–22	W	O44
Close	PHI @ IND 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	17–16	L	U45.5
Close	SF @ ATL 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	14–28	L	U46.5
Close	KC @ DEN 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-7	43–16	W	O46
Close	BAL @ NE 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-7	17–23	L	U44
Close	NO @ CAR 2020 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-6	33–7	W	U47
Close	LAR @ WSH 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-7	30–10	W	U45
Close	PHI @ ARI 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	20–17	L	U48.5
Close	BUF @ NE 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	24–10	W	U44
Close	GB @ BAL 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar total & spread	-7	31–30	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF ––––L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1
MIN ––––W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF ––––O	1-0	100%	5-1
MIN ––––U	0-1	0%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 29% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFlast 6	5-1 83%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%
MINlast 6	2-4 33%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SF 4–8 MIN MIN leads · 12 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+7.9 →+4.9▼ 3.0#1

MIN−0.3 →−0.4▼ 0.1#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

MIN

Offense

◀ SF better

#14

Defense

◀ SF better

#17

+1.3 #1

Turnovers

◀ SF better

−1.2 #31

62 plays #19

Pace

◀ SF faster

61 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #2	22.5 #21	SF
Yards / play	5.97 #2	4.92 #9	SF
EPA / play	+0.17 #3	−0.03 #16	SF
Success rate	49% #3	44% #21	SF

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	MIN off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #18	14.5 #2	SF
Yards / play	5.60 #8	4.50 #3	SF
EPA / play	−0.06 #17	−0.17 #4	SF
Success rate	45% #11	40% #6	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.8 #4	10.8 #3	17.7 #3	3.3 #20	9.7 #2	13.0 #5
MIN allowed	4.5 #17	7.0 #16	11.5 #16	7.0 #30	4.0 #4	11.0 #22

MIN scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	1.0 #30	8.8 #8	9.8 #21	5.8 #5	5.8 #17	11.7 #8
SF allowed	1.0 #2	8.0 #21	9.0 #7	3.5 #13	2.0 #1	5.5 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.