Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Los Angeles Rams · Division game
Closing spread
LAR -2
✓ SEA W
Total
46
▼ Under · 33 pts
Model before kickoff
SEA 20–22 LAR
✓ LAR (57%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseLAR -2
Total46
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseLAR -2
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close46
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseLAR -2
Total46
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
LAR as a 2-point home favorite against SEA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.
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This game: LAR won 17–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 46, as in 8 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 55%
Favorite covered
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
2 of 1020%
Normal range · usually 44%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.4 against an average line of 2.4; 37 points a game (usually 45.5). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |  LAC vs  NE2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total |
-2 | 0–45 | L | U46.5 |
| Close |  CLE vs  PHI2020 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread |
-2.5 | 22–17 | W | U45.5 |
| Close |  GB vs  MIN2022 · Week 17 · close · similar total & season form |
-3 | 41–17 | W | O47.5 |
| Close |  BAL vs CLE2021 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & total |
-3 | 16–10 | W | U47.5 |
| Close |  TEN vs  IND2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form |
-3 | 19–10 | W | U43 |
| Close | CLE vs  LV2020 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation |
-1 | 6–16 | L | U47 |
| Close | LAC vs TEN 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar total & season form |
-3 | 17–14 | P | U46.5 |
| Close |  PIT vs TEN2021 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total |
-1 | 19–13 | W | U44 |
| Close | NE vs  SF2020 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread |
-3 | 6–33 | L | U45 |
| Close |  TB vs BAL2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total |
-2 | 22–27 | L | O46.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Mixed signals on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Seattle Seahawks ATS struggles (1-3-1)
Seattle Seahawks have covered only 25% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)
Los Angeles Rams ATS struggles (1-3)
Los Angeles Rams have covered only 25% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)
Wind 27 mph
Outdoor NFL games with 27 mph wind at kickoff have stayed under the total more often than the market allows for. · Backtest 2023–26: 57-46 (55%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 42% of games with totals 43–49 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 SEAlast 9 | 6-3 67% | 1-3-1 25% | 2-3 40% |
| LARlast 9 | 3-6 33% | 1-3 25% | 1-3 25% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
SEA 28–24 LAR
SEA leads · 52 games since 2000 · SEA has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10 2023 | Los Angeles Rams 30 @ Seattle Seahawks 13 | — | — |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
SEA−7.8 →+0.1▲ 7.9#15
LAR+7.8 →−0.6▼ 8.4#18
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10
SEALonger bar = better
LAR#11
Offense
◀ SEA better#16
#16
Defense
◀ SEA better#22
+0.3 #10
Turnovers
◀ SEA better−0.2 #18
60 plays #28
Pace
LAR faster ▶63 plays #17
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When SEA has the ball| SEA off | LAR def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 22.2 #14 | 22.7 #22 | SEA |
| Yards / play | 5.53 #10 | 5.37 #22 | SEA |
| EPA / play | +0.01 #11 | 0.00 #22 | SEA |
| Success rate | 45% #9 | 44% #22 | SEA |
When LAR has the ball| LAR off | SEA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 19.8 #23 | 22.3 #19 | Even |
| Yards / play | 5.29 #13 | 5.16 #15 | Even |
| EPA / play | −0.01 #13 | −0.03 #16 | Even |
| Success rate | 43% #14 | 43% #14 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
SEA scoring against the LAR defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA scored | 6.0 #7 | 5.0 #25 | 11.0 #18 | 4.4 #13 | 6.1 #15 | 10.6 #17 |
| LAR allowed | 4.1 #15 | 7.6 #18 | 11.7 #14 | 3.8 #12 | 7.2 #26 | 11.0 #19 |
LAR scoring against the SEA defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR scored | 4.4 #17 | 5.7 #21 | 10.1 #21 | 4.7 #11 | 4.3 #29 | 9.0 #24 |
| SEA allowed | 4.4 #18 | 6.8 #14 | 11.2 #13 | 4.3 #16 | 6.8 #22 | 11.1 #22 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
LAR +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
66° · 27 mph
gusts 40 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
SEA7d
LAR14d bye
LAR +7 days
Tempo
Average 123 plays
slowavg 127fast
Schedules, links & other games
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