Vikings @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff46°F12 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

6-4 · Power #15

final

Final

Denver Broncos

4-5 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

✓ MIN W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 23–25 DEN

✓ DEN (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -2.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDEN -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -2.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 2.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 21–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 43, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 2.2; 46.2 points a game (usually 45.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Very close	PIT vs TEN 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-1	19–13	W	U44
Very close	MIN vs NE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	33–26	W	O41.5
Very close	PHI vs NO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	40–29	W	O42
Close	LV vs NE 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar spread	-2	30–24	W	O45.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–13	W	U44.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar total & team ratings	-1	26–14	W	U43.5
Close	NYJ vs DET 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-2	17–20	L	U43.5
Close	DEN vs GB 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWWWW	5-0	100%	3-0	3-0
DEN –LLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	0-3

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UUUOO	2-3	40%	6-4
DEN –UUUU	0-5	0%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 31% of games with totals 40–46 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	6-4 60%	5-0 100%	2-3 40%
DENlast 9	4-5 44%	2-4 33%	0-5 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 3–4 DEN DEN leads · 7 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.3 →+1.0▲ 1.3#11

DEN0.0 →−2.6▼ 2.6#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MIN

Longer bar = better

DEN

#11

Offense

◀ MIN better

#17

#13

Defense

◀ MIN better

#32

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

+0.3 #8

64 plays #15

Pace

◀ MIN faster

58 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #11	27.6 #31	MIN
Yards / play	5.60 #8	6.41 #32	MIN
EPA / play	+0.01 #12	+0.11 #32	MIN
Success rate	43% #12	48% #32	MIN

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #15	20.9 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.19 #17	5.00 #9	MIN
EPA / play	−0.04 #18	−0.06 #10	MIN
Success rate	42% #17	43% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	2.6 #27	9.3 #4	11.9 #13	6.9 #4	4.5 #28	11.4 #12
DEN allowed	3.9 #12	9.2 #31	13.1 #26	6.4 #29	8.0 #29	14.4 #32

DEN scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	6.0 #8	5.7 #22	11.7 #14	1.9 #31	8.2 #3	10.1 #17
MIN allowed	3.3 #6	6.0 #10	9.3 #6	7.4 #32	4.2 #5	11.6 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.