Browns @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sun, Nov 26, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Denver Broncos

Weather at kickoff39°F4 mphgusts 12DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

7-3 · Power #8

final

Final

Denver Broncos

5-5 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -2

✓ DEN W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 23–24 DEN

✓ DEN (54%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -2

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDEN -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -2

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 2-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 29–12; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 41 points went over 37.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 2.3; 31.5 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLE vs BAL 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-3	13–3	W	U38.5
Close	PIT vs BAL 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	14–16	L	U36.5
Close	PIT vs DEN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	27–19	W	O40
Close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Close	PIT vs GB 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-3	23–19	W	O38
Close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Close	PIT vs NO 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-1	20–10	W	U39.5
Close	GB vs LAR 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	20–3	W	U39.5
Close	NYJ vs JAX 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	3–19	L	U36.5
Close	DEN vs MIN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–20	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LPWWW	4-1-1	80%	1-1-1	2-0-1
DEN LLWWL	2-5	29%	1-4	0-4

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUOU	4-2	67%	7-3
DEN UUUUU	0-6	0%	5-5

Went over in Q4. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	7-3 70%	4-1-1 80%	4-2 67%
DEN	5-5 50%	2-5 29%	0-6 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 2–10 DEN DEN leads · 12 games since 2000 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+6.0 →+3.2▼ 2.8#7

DEN0.0 →−2.5▼ 2.5#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CLE

Longer bar = better

DEN

#24

Offense

DEN better ▶

#17

Defense

◀ CLE better

#32

−0.5 #24

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

+0.6 #8

72 plays #1

Pace

◀ CLE faster

58 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: CLE offense

	CLE off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #13	26.8 #30	CLE
Yards / play	4.52 #29	6.31 #32	Even
EPA / play	−0.14 #26	+0.09 #32	CLE
Success rate	38% #29	48% #32	Even

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	DEN off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #15	18.0 #6	CLE
Yards / play	5.23 #14	4.51 #2	CLE
EPA / play	−0.04 #18	−0.24 #1	CLE
Success rate	42% #19	33% #1	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.3 #23	8.7 #7	12.0 #11	4.8 #11	5.9 #16	10.7 #15
DEN allowed	3.5 #9	9.3 #31	12.8 #24	6.5 #29	7.5 #29	14.0 #31

DEN scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	5.7 #8	5.7 #22	11.4 #15	1.7 #32	8.6 #2	10.3 #16
CLE allowed	6.9 #32	3.6 #1	10.5 #10	2.7 #4	4.8 #7	7.5 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.