Browns @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sun, Dec 3, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff68°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

7-4 · Power #8

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

5-6 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -3.5

✓ LAR W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 20–23 LAR

✓ LAR (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -3.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAR -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 50% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -3.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 3.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 36–19; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 39.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.6 against an average line of 3.1; 43.2 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs TEN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–27	L	O40.5
Very close	CLE vs BAL 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	13–3	W	U38.5
Very close	TB vs NO 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–16	L	U41
Very close	SEA vs CLE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–20	P	O38.5
Very close	TEN vs MIA 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–3	W	U41
Very close	MIN vs NE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	33–26	W	O41.5
Very close	SF vs IND 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	18–30	L	O41
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	HOU vs TB 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	39–37	L	O39.5
Very close	NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	7–10	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE PWWWL	4-2-1	67%	1-2-1	2-1-1
LAR LLLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUOUO	5-2	71%	7-4
LAR UOUUO	2-4	33%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 19 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	6-4 60%	4-2-1 67%	5-2 71%
LAR	4-6 40%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CLE 1–6 LAR LAR leads · 7 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+6.0 →+2.6▼ 3.4#9

LAR+7.8 →+0.2▼ 7.6#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CLE

Longer bar = better

LAR

#26

Offense

LAR better ▶

#13

Defense

◀ CLE better

#18

−0.6 #29

Turnovers

LAR better ▶

−0.3 #20

72 plays #1

Pace

◀ CLE faster

63 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	CLE off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #16	21.3 #16	Even
Yards / play	4.46 #29	5.23 #17	LAR
EPA / play	−0.15 #28	−0.01 #20	LAR
Success rate	38% #29	43% #18	LAR

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	LAR off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	21.1 #17	19.0 #7	CLE
Yards / play	5.38 #13	4.54 #2	CLE
EPA / play	+0.01 #11	−0.22 #1	CLE
Success rate	44% #11	34% #1	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.0 #24	8.5 #7	11.5 #12	4.9 #11	5.4 #21	10.3 #17
LAR allowed	4.7 #20	6.7 #15	11.5 #16	3.4 #10	6.5 #22	9.8 #16

LAR scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	4.3 #18	6.5 #16	10.8 #18	4.1 #16	5.6 #19	9.7 #20
CLE allowed	6.9 #32	3.9 #3	10.8 #11	2.7 #5	5.5 #14	8.2 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.