Jaguars @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff39°F10 mphgusts 16DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

8-4 · Power #12

final

Final

Cleveland Browns

7-5 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

✓ CLE W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 21–24 CLE

✓ CLE (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -2.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLE -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–4.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -2.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 2.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CLE won 31–27; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 37.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 2.6; 34.8 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Very close	NYJ vs JAX 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	3–19	L	U36.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Very close	CLE vs BAL 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	13–3	W	U38.5
Very close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Very close	PIT vs GB 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	23–19	W	O38
Very close	PIT vs BAL 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	14–16	L	U36.5
Very close	SF vs TB 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–7	W	O38.5
Very close	HOU vs TB 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	39–37	L	O39.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	13–16	L	U35.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WLWWL	5-2	71%	3-0	1-1
CLE WWWLL	4-3-1	57%	3-0	2-1

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; CLE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUOUO	4-3	57%	8-4
CLE UOUOO	6-2	75%	7-5

Went over in Q4. Of 18 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	7-3 70%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%
CLE	6-4 60%	4-3-1 57%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 11–8 CLE JAX leads · 19 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+3.9 →+1.4▼ 2.5#10

CLE+6.0 →+2.2▼ 3.8#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

JAX

Longer bar = better

CLE

#15

Offense

◀ JAX better

#26

#20

Defense

CLE better ▶

+0.3 #12

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−0.7 #29

66 plays #6

Pace

CLE faster ▶

72 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	JAX off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #9	20.4 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.27 #15	4.71 #3	CLE
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.18 #1	CLE
Success rate	43% #14	35% #1	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	CLE off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #17	21.6 #20	Even
Yards / play	4.48 #29	5.65 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.15 #28	−0.02 #17	JAX
Success rate	38% #29	42% #14	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.6 #16	6.9 #13	11.5 #12	6.2 #5	6.1 #14	12.3 #7
CLE allowed	7.2 #32	3.8 #3	11.0 #12	3.1 #5	6.3 #18	9.4 #12

CLE scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.3 #23	8.0 #9	11.3 #13	4.8 #11	5.4 #21	10.2 #18
JAX allowed	1.9 #2	5.3 #6	7.3 #2	6.7 #31	7.4 #27	14.1 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.