Panthers @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

1-11 · Power #31

final

Final

New Orleans Saints

5-7 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

NO -5.5

✓ NO W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 20–25 NO

✓ NO (70%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -5.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNO -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -5.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 5.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 28–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 38.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 5.9; 41.2 points a game (usually 47.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYG vs IND 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	38–10	W	O38.5
Very close	PIT vs CHI 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & rest	-7	29–27	L	O40
Very close	NE vs IND 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	26–3	W	U40
Very close	CLE vs NYJ 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	30–31	L	O39.5
Very close	JAX vs TEN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	34–14	W	O40
Close	MIA vs NYG 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	20–9	W	U39.5
Close	PIT vs ARI 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	10–24	L	U41
Close	PIT vs DET 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-6	16–16	L	U40.5
Close	TB vs CAR 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–18	L	O37
Close	JAX vs TEN 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total	-6	20–16	L	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWLLW	3-4	43%	2-2	3-4
NO WWLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	2-4

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR UUUUO	2-5	29%	1-11
NO OPOUO	4-2-1	67%	5-7

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 43% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	1-9 10%	3-4 43%	2-5 29%
NO	3-7 30%	2-5 29%	4-2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CAR 24–31 NO NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 18 2023	New Orleans Saints 20 @ Carolina Panthers 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.1 →−4.5▼ 2.4#30

NO+0.8 →+0.4▼ 0.4#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CAR

Longer bar = better

#30

Offense

NO better ▶

#18

#25

Defense

NO better ▶

#11

−0.6 #27

Turnovers

NO better ▶

+0.3 #10

66 plays #8

Pace

NO faster ▶

68 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	CAR off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	15.9 #29	21.3 #16	NO
Yards / play	4.07 #32	5.25 #16	NO
EPA / play	−0.16 #30	−0.07 #8	NO
Success rate	38% #30	40% #5	NO

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #19	26.1 #31	NO
Yards / play	5.12 #19	5.07 #11	CAR
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	+0.04 #29	NO
Success rate	42% #16	45% #27	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	2.8 #26	4.5 #28	7.3 #28	3.3 #24	5.3 #23	8.6 #25
NO allowed	5.7 #27	7.3 #17	13.0 #25	1.8 #2	6.4 #20	8.3 #4

NO scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.4 #17	5.8 #20	10.3 #21	5.3 #8	5.8 #17	11.2 #11
CAR allowed	3.7 #10	9.5 #31	13.2 #28	5.1 #20	7.8 #30	12.9 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.