Patriots @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Thu, Dec 7, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff39°F5 mphDryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

2-10 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

7-5 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

✓ NE W

Total

30.5

▲ Over · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 16–21 PIT

✗ PIT (68%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -5.5

Total30.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePIT -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close30.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -5.5

Total30.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like PIT as a 5.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 21–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 9 similar games. 39 points went over 30.5, as in 2 of 9.

Favorite won

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Above normal · usually 43%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 5.2; 31 points a game (usually 47.1). When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CHI vs NYG 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form & spread	-6.5	29–3	W	U36.5
Loose	TEN vs HOU 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	14–19	L	U34
Loose	CLE vs NO 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar total & season form	-3	10–17	L	U32
Loose	TEN vs CAR 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	17–10	W	U36
Loose	NO vs CAR 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form	-7	18–10	W	U37
Loose	BAL vs ATL 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	17–9	W	U35.5
Loose	NYG vs IND 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar spread & season form	-5.5	38–10	W	O38.5
Loose	NYJ vs CHI 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	31–10	W	O36.5
Loose	MIA vs NYJ 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar situation	-4	11–6	W	U37

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LLLLL	1-6	14%	0-3	1-4
PIT WWLWL	5-3	63%	2-2	3-1

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE OUUUU	2-5	29%	2-10
PIT POUUU	1-6-1	14%	7-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	2-8 20%	1-6 14%	2-5 29%
PIT	6-4 60%	5-3 63%	1-6-1 14%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 15–5 PIT NE leads · 20 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE0.0 →−3.2▼ 3.2#27

PIT−7.9 →−1.7▲ 6.2#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

PIT

#28

Offense

Even

#25

#12

Defense

Even

#12

−0.8 #31

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+0.8 #2

62 plays #21

Pace

◀ NE faster

60 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	NE off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	12.3 #32	19.1 #6	PIT
Yards / play	4.67 #28	5.31 #20	PIT
EPA / play	−0.17 #30	−0.05 #12	PIT
Success rate	41% #22	41% #9	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	PIT off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #28	21.2 #15	NE
Yards / play	4.93 #25	4.85 #6	NE
EPA / play	−0.09 #24	−0.02 #20	Even
Success rate	41% #23	41% #8	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.2 #29	3.7 #32	5.8 #31	2.2 #31	4.3 #28	6.5 #31
PIT allowed	5.3 #24	6.3 #12	11.5 #17	3.9 #14	3.7 #2	7.6 #2

PIT scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.6 #28	3.9 #30	6.5 #30	4.4 #13	5.1 #24	9.5 #23
NE allowed	4.7 #18	7.7 #21	12.3 #22	3.0 #4	5.8 #16	8.8 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.