Chargers @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sun, Dec 3, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff43°F11 mphgusts 22Wet0.1 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

4-7 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

2-9 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

LAC -4.5

✓ LAC W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 6 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 25–20 NE

✓ LAC (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -4.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAC -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -4.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 4.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 6–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 6 points stayed under 38.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.7 against an average line of 4.5; 43.5 points a game (usually 46.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF @ CHI 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	33–22	W	O40
Very close	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	30–20	W	O40
Very close	CIN @ PIT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-5	37–30	W	O39.5
Close	WSH @ HOU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	23–10	W	U41
Close	GB @ WSH 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	21–23	L	O41.5
Close	NO @ CHI 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	26–23	L	O41
Close	NE @ NYJ 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	25–6	W	U43
Close	LV @ LAR 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-6	16–17	L	U42
Close	JAX @ HOU 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	31–3	W	U43.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	19–20	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC WWLLL	3-5	38%	1-2	3-1
NE WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOUU	2-6	25%	4-7
NE OOUUU	2-4	33%	2-9

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 41% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	4-6 40%	3-5 38%	2-6 25%
NE	2-8 20%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 5–12 NE NE leads · 17 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−2.1 →+0.1▲ 2.2#15

NE0.0 →−3.2▼ 3.2#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

LAC

Longer bar = better

#13

Offense

◀ LAC better

#27

Defense

NE better ▶

#15

+0.3 #11

Turnovers

◀ LAC better

−0.7 #31

64 plays #15

Pace

◀ LAC faster

62 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #9	22.5 #21	LAC
Yards / play	5.41 #12	4.93 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #10	0.00 #23	LAC
Success rate	42% #22	41% #7	NE

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	13.5 #31	23.5 #24	LAC
Yards / play	4.71 #28	5.78 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.16 #29	+0.04 #28	Even
Success rate	42% #21	46% #28	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	6.5 #4	8.5 #7	14.9 #6	3.0 #26	6.5 #12	9.5 #23
NE allowed	5.1 #23	7.8 #22	12.9 #24	3.3 #9	6.4 #18	9.6 #14

NE scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.4 #28	4.0 #30	6.4 #31	2.4 #30	4.7 #26	7.1 #28
LAC allowed	3.1 #5	9.2 #30	12.3 #22	3.9 #15	7.0 #24	10.9 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.