Broncos @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Los Angeles Chargers · Division game

Weather at kickoff75°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

6-6 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

5-7 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

LAC -3

✓ DEN W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 24–27 LAC

✗ LAC (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -3

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAC -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -3

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 3-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 24–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 3.1; 46.1 points a game (usually 46). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	22–17	W	U47
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–17	W	O45
Very close	LAC vs TEN 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–14	P	U46.5
Very close	MIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	36–28	W	O45
Very close	CLE vs PHI 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	22–17	W	U45.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	27–33	L	O47
Very close	CIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	41–10	W	O44
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	10–12	L	U43
Very close	GB vs MIN 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	41–17	W	O47.5
Very close	NYG vs DET 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	18–31	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWLWL	3-6	33%	1-2	2-2
LAC WLLLW	4-5	44%	2-3	4-1

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UUUOU	1-7	13%	6-6
LAC UOUUU	2-7	22%	5-7

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 46% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	6-4 60%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%
LAC	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 33–23 LAC DEN leads · 56 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN0.0 →−2.1▼ 2.1#24

LAC−2.1 →+0.1▲ 2.2#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

DEN

Longer bar = better

LAC

#18

Offense

LAC better ▶

#14

#30

Defense

LAC better ▶

#25

+0.4 #8

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #11

58 plays #32

Pace

LAC faster ▶

64 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: DEN offense

	DEN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #16	21.5 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.15 #17	5.65 #28	DEN
EPA / play	−0.05 #21	+0.01 #25	Even
Success rate	42% #17	45% #29	DEN

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #12	25.2 #29	LAC
Yards / play	5.29 #14	6.03 #31	LAC
EPA / play	+0.01 #12	+0.05 #30	LAC
Success rate	42% #19	46% #30	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	5.3 #9	5.6 #22	10.9 #17	2.3 #30	8.8 #3	11.0 #12
LAC allowed	2.8 #4	8.4 #28	11.3 #16	3.6 #11	6.4 #20	10.0 #14

LAC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.9 #8	8.3 #7	14.2 #7	2.8 #29	6.0 #17	8.8 #24
DEN allowed	3.8 #12	8.5 #29	12.3 #23	6.2 #29	6.8 #23	12.9 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.