Bears @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Mon, Nov 27, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Minnesota Vikings · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

3-8 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota Vikings

6-5 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

MIN -3

✓ CHI W

Total

▼ Under · 22 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 24–27 MIN

✗ MIN (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIN -3

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIN -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIN -3

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 3-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 12–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 22 points stayed under 43, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 3.3; 43.2 points a game (usually 46.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	7–10	L	U41.5
Very close	CIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	41–10	W	O44
Very close	LAR vs PIT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	17–24	L	U43.5
Very close	JAX vs NYG 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–23	L	U43.5
Very close	SF vs WSH 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	15–23	L	U43.5
Very close	TEN vs MIA 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	34–3	W	U41
Very close	CAR vs WSH 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	21–27	L	O43
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	31–17	W	O45
Very close	SEA vs CAR 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-4	24–30	L	O44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WLLLW	3-4	43%	2-2	3-3
MIN WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI OUPUO	3-3-1	50%	3-8
MIN UUOOU	2-4	33%	6-5

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 36% of games with totals 40–46 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	3-7 30%	3-4 43%	3-3-1 50%
MIN	6-4 60%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CHI 26–29 MIN MIN leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 15 2023	Minnesota Vikings 19 @ Chicago Bears 13	MIN -3.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−5.2 →−2.5▲ 2.7#25

MIN−0.3 →+0.9▲ 1.2#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CHI

Longer bar = better

MIN

#18

Offense

MIN better ▶

#12

#24

Defense

MIN better ▶

#13

−0.5 #27

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #26

64 plays #15

Pace

Even

64 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #18	20.9 #13	MIN
Yards / play	5.03 #22	5.05 #10	MIN
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.05 #11	MIN
Success rate	45% #9	43% #17	CHI

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #13	26.0 #29	MIN
Yards / play	5.59 #9	5.30 #20	MIN
EPA / play	+0.01 #12	+0.03 #27	MIN
Success rate	44% #12	43% #20	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	4.0 #20	7.3 #13	11.3 #15	3.8 #20	5.8 #16	9.6 #22
MIN allowed	3.3 #7	6.0 #10	9.3 #7	6.7 #32	4.9 #9	11.6 #26

MIN scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	2.4 #28	9.4 #4	11.7 #12	6.9 #4	4.4 #29	11.3 #12
CHI allowed	5.0 #22	8.1 #24	13.1 #26	5.6 #26	7.3 #29	12.9 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.