Lions @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Chicago Bears · Division game

Weather at kickoff36°F11 mphgusts 18DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Detroit Lions

9-3 · Power #6

final

Final

Chicago Bears

4-8 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -3

✓ CHI W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 27–24 CHI

✗ DET (62%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -3

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDET -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -3

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 3-point road favorite at CHI, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 28–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 3.1; 49.2 points a game (usually 46). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Very close	CIN @ TEN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–16	W	U42.5
Very close	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	13–32	L	U45.5
Very close	BAL @ CLE 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	47–42	W	O45.5
Very close	ARI @ NYG 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	26–7	W	U47
Very close	SF @ SEA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	23–30	L	O45
Very close	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Very close	MIN @ MIA 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	24–16	W	U45
Very close	LAC @ GB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	20–23	L	U44
Very close	LAC @ DEN 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	30–31	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WWLLW	4-3	57%	3-1	4-2
CHI LLLWW	4-4	50%	1-2	4-3

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; CHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET UOOOO	5-2	71%	9-3
CHI UPUOU	3-4-1	43%	4-8

Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 41% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	8-2 80%	4-3 57%	5-2 71%
CHI	4-6 40%	4-4 50%	3-4-1 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DET 26–28 CHI CHI leads · 54 games since 1999 · DET has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 19 2023	Chicago Bears 26 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -8	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.7 →+3.1▲ 1.4#6

CHI−5.2 →−1.9▲ 3.3#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

DET

Longer bar = better

CHI

Offense

◀ DET better

#19

#21

Defense

Even

#20

−0.3 #20

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #23

68 plays #3

Pace

◀ DET faster

65 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #6	24.7 #28	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #3	5.26 #19	DET
EPA / play	+0.05 #7	−0.01 #21	DET
Success rate	46% #6	42% #11	DET

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #21	23.8 #23	Even
Yards / play	5.00 #23	5.33 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	−0.03 #15	DET
Success rate	44% #11	44% #23	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	7.3 #2	7.9 #10	15.3 #5	3.8 #20	8.2 #4	12.0 #8
CHI allowed	4.6 #18	7.7 #22	12.3 #21	5.2 #23	7.3 #26	12.4 #27

CHI scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	3.7 #22	6.9 #13	10.6 #19	3.8 #22	5.8 #17	9.6 #22
DET allowed	4.5 #16	6.5 #14	11.0 #12	6.3 #29	6.1 #17	12.3 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.