Seahawks @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 14 · at San Francisco 49ers · Division game

Weather at kickoff53°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

6-6 · Power #20

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

9-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -14

✓ SEA W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 18–32 SF

✓ SF (90%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -14

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -14

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 14-point home favorite against SEA, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 28–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 15.6 against an average line of 13.7; 44.2 points a game (usually 42.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs PIT 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	38–3	W	U44.5
Very close	BUF vs CAR 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-14.5	31–14	W	O43
Very close	BUF vs ATL 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	29–15	P	U46
Very close	KC vs DEN 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & situation	-13	27–24	L	O46
Very close	SF vs TB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	27–14	L	U42
Close	DAL vs WSH 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-13	45–10	W	O48
Close	KC vs TEN 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-14	20–17	L	U45
Close	SF vs ARI 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & season form	-14	38–13	W	O40.5
Close	MIA vs LV 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	20–13	L	U44
Close	GB vs JAX 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	24–20	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA LLWLW	3-4-1	43%	2-2	2-3
SF LWLWW	3-4	43%	0-2	3-4

Venue/role: SEA away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA UOUOO	4-4	50%	6-6
SF OUUOO	4-3	57%	9-3

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 47% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	5-5 50%	3-4-1 43%	4-4 50%
SF	7-3 70%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SEA 31–21 SF SEA leads · 52 games since 2002 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2023	San Francisco 49ers 31 @ Seattle Seahawks 13	SF -7	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA−7.8 →−0.5▲ 7.3#18

SF+7.9 →+7.3▼ 0.6#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

SEA

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

SF better ▶

#20

Defense

SF better ▶

+0.1 #15

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+0.9 #1

60 plays #28

Pace

Even

60 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	SEA off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #14	15.8 #2	SF
Yards / play	5.42 #11	4.82 #6	SF
EPA / play	0.00 #13	−0.11 #4	SF
Success rate	44% #10	41% #8	Even

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #3	24.2 #25	SF
Yards / play	6.50 #2	5.17 #13	SF
EPA / play	+0.18 #1	−0.01 #22	SF
Success rate	51% #1	44% #20	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	5.9 #7	5.4 #25	11.3 #13	5.0 #9	5.2 #23	10.2 #21
SF allowed	3.0 #4	5.6 #8	8.6 #4	3.9 #15	3.3 #1	7.2 #2

SF scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.0 #6	9.6 #4	15.6 #4	5.8 #7	8.0 #5	13.8 #4
SEA allowed	4.8 #20	7.9 #23	12.7 #26	3.8 #13	7.7 #29	11.5 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.