49ers @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sun, Dec 3, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff52°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

8-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

10-1 · Power #16

final

Closing spread

SF -3

✓ SF W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 27–24 PHI

✓ SF (61%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -3

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -3

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 3-point road favorite at PHI, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 42–19; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 57%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 3.4; 57.6 points a game (usually 46.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO @ ATL 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	21–16	W	U45.5
Very close	BAL @ LAC 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–10	W	U49
Very close	LAR @ ARI 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	38–28	W	O48.5
Very close	DAL @ PHI 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	51–26	W	O45.5
Very close	LAR @ MIN 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	30–23	W	O48.5
Very close	DET @ LAC 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	41–38	W	O48
Close	BUF @ NO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	31–6	W	U45
Close	TB @ NO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-4.5	27–36	L	O48.5
Close	BAL @ CLE 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-3	47–42	W	O45.5
Close	DAL @ TB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3	31–14	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF LLWLW	2-4	33%	2-2	2-4
PHI WPWWW	4-2-1	67%	3-1	1-0

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; PHI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UOUUO	3-3	50%	8-3
PHI UOOUO	4-3	57%	10-1

Went over in Q4. Of 26 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	7-3 70%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
PHI	9-1 90%	4-2-1 67%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SF 7–9 PHI PHI leads · 16 games since 2001 · SF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+7.9 →+6.6▼ 1.3#1

PHI0.0 →+3.5▲ 3.5#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

PHI

Offense

◀ SF better

Defense

◀ SF better

#19

+1.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ SF better

−0.2 #19

61 plays #25

Pace

PHI faster ▶

67 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #3	22.4 #20	SF
Yards / play	6.38 #2	5.22 #16	SF
EPA / play	+0.15 #1	0.00 #24	SF
Success rate	50% #2	42% #17	SF

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #4	15.5 #1	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #10	4.82 #5	SF
EPA / play	+0.08 #5	−0.13 #4	Even
Success rate	46% #7	42% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.5 #4	9.2 #4	15.7 #4	5.0 #9	7.5 #7	12.5 #6
PHI allowed	3.5 #8	9.5 #31	12.9 #25	2.2 #3	7.0 #25	9.2 #13

PHI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	6.4 #5	6.2 #19	12.5 #10	7.2 #3	7.6 #5	14.8 #1
SF allowed	2.7 #3	6.1 #10	8.8 #5	3.6 #13	3.0 #1	6.6 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.