Falcons @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sun, Dec 3, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff50°F11 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

5-6 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

4-7 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

ATL -2

✓ ATL W

Total

▼ Under · 21 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 22–20 NYJ

✓ ATL (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2

Total33

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseATL -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close33

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2

Total33

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 2-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ATL won 13–8; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 21 points stayed under 33, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 6.2 against an average line of 2.2; 32.4 points a game (usually 45.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ TEN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	23–28	L	O35
Very close	DEN @ LAR 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	14–51	L	O36.5
Close	DEN @ CAR 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	10–23	L	U36
Close	PIT @ CIN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	16–10	W	U36
Close	WSH @ CHI 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-1	12–7	W	U37.5
Loose	LV @ CHI 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & rest	-1.5	12–30	L	O37.5
Loose	NYJ @ NYG 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & total	-3	13–10	P	U34.5
Loose	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & rest	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	7–14	L	U36.5
Loose	NE @ NYG 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-4.5	7–10	L	U36

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL WLLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	0-4
NYJ PLLLL	1-4-1	20%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UOOOU	3-3	50%	5-6
NYJ UUUUO	1-5	17%	4-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	4-6 40%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
NYJ	3-7 30%	1-4-1 20%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 5–2 NYJ ATL leads · 7 games since 2005 · NYJ has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL+2.1 →−1.3▼ 3.4#20

NYJ+1.0 →−3.1▼ 4.1#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

ATL

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#22

Offense

◀ ATL better

#31

#11

Defense

Even

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

NYJ better ▶

−0.1 #18

66 plays #7

Pace

◀ ATL faster

59 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	ATL off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #22	21.6 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.17 #18	4.81 #4	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.09 #24	−0.06 #9	NYJ
Success rate	41% #23	40% #5	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	NYJ off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	14.8 #30	21.1 #14	ATL
Yards / play	4.41 #30	5.14 #11	ATL
EPA / play	−0.25 #32	−0.05 #12	ATL
Success rate	36% #32	41% #6	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	3.4 #22	4.6 #26	8.0 #26	3.2 #24	8.2 #5	11.4 #11
NYJ allowed	6.6 #31	6.7 #15	13.4 #27	3.2 #8	5.1 #12	8.3 #6

NYJ scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	1.6 #31	5.3 #25	6.9 #29	2.5 #29	4.6 #28	7.1 #28
ATL allowed	3.5 #10	8.1 #25	11.6 #15	5.3 #24	4.2 #4	9.5 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.