Colts @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sun, Dec 3, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Tennessee Titans · Division game

Weather at kickoff59°F10 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

6-5 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

4-7 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

IND -1

✓ IND W

Total

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 24–23 TEN

✓ IND (54%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -1

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIND -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -1

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 1-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 31–28; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 42, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 41%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 1.5; 41.5 points a game (usually 44). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL @ NYG 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	19–23	L	U43.5
Very close	LAC @ NYJ 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	27–6	W	U42
Very close	CAR @ WSH 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	20–13	W	U42
Very close	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Very close	ATL @ CAR 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	15–25	L	U41.5
Very close	HOU @ CHI 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	7–36	L	U46
Very close	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Very close	BAL @ CLE 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1	22–24	L	O44
Very close	CIN @ NO 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	30–26	W	O43
Very close	NO @ WSH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	33–22	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	3-0
TEN WLLLW	2-4	33%	2-0	1-4

Venue/role: IND away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OOUUO	4-2	67%	6-5
TEN OPUOU	2-3-1	40%	4-7

Went over in Q4. Of 25 earlier overs in games with totals 39–45, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	6-4 60%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
TEN	4-6 40%	2-4 33%	2-3-1 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IND 34–16 TEN IND leads · 50 games since 1999 · TEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 8 2023	Tennessee Titans 16 @ Indianapolis Colts 23	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−3.9 →−0.4▲ 3.5#16

TEN−0.8 →−2.7▼ 1.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

IND

Longer bar = better

TEN

#17

Offense

◀ IND better

#24

#20

Defense

Even

#18

+0.2 #12

Turnovers

◀ IND better

−0.4 #22

65 plays #10

Pace

◀ IND faster

56 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #8	20.4 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.23 #16	5.26 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #19	+0.02 #27	IND
Success rate	41% #24	42% #16	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	16.8 #27	24.4 #27	Even
Yards / play	5.06 #21	5.17 #14	IND
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.04 #14	IND
Success rate	40% #28	45% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.6 #9	7.6 #11	13.3 #8	4.1 #15	6.8 #10	10.9 #13
TEN allowed	3.8 #13	5.3 #7	9.1 #6	5.8 #27	5.5 #13	11.3 #22

TEN scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.2 #24	6.1 #20	9.3 #25	4.3 #14	3.0 #30	7.3 #27
IND allowed	5.3 #25	7.6 #19	12.9 #24	4.5 #18	6.4 #18	10.9 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.