Bengals @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Mon, Dec 4, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff62°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

5-6 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

8-3 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

JAX -10

✓ CIN W

Total

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 19–28 JAX

✗ JAX (80%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -10

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJAX -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -10

Total41

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 10-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 34–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 41, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.6 against an average line of 9.8; 42.8 points a game (usually 45.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL vs CHI 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	49–29	W	O42.5
Very close	PHI vs WSH 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	27–17	P	O39.5
Very close	MIA vs CIN 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	19–7	W	U43
Very close	BAL vs DEN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-9	10–9	L	U40.5
Very close	PHI vs NYG 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	34–10	W	O40.5
Very close	SEA vs DET 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & rest	-9	51–29	W	O41.5
Very close	GB vs NE 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	27–24	L	O40
Very close	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & season form	-11	27–16	P	O39
Very close	SEA vs ARI 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	20–10	W	U43.5
Close	SF vs NO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-9	13–0	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWLLL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-2
JAX WWLWW	5-1	83%	2-1	4-0

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUOOU	3-3	50%	5-6
JAX OUUOU	3-3	50%	8-3

Went over in Q3. Of 24 earlier overs in games with totals 38–44, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
JAX	7-3 70%	5-1 83%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 9–10 JAX JAX leads · 19 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−6.0 →−1.3▲ 4.7#19

JAX+3.9 →+1.7▼ 2.2#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CIN

Longer bar = better

JAX

#19

Offense

JAX better ▶

#16

#28

Defense

JAX better ▶

#15

+0.9 #2

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

+0.2 #12

60 plays #28

Pace

JAX faster ▶

66 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #23	20.5 #12	JAX
Yards / play	4.88 #25	5.52 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	−0.05 #13	Even
Success rate	44% #12	41% #9	Even

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #10	22.0 #21	JAX
Yards / play	5.24 #15	6.15 #32	JAX
EPA / play	−0.07 #22	+0.02 #27	JAX
Success rate	42% #16	47% #31	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.3 #11	4.6 #27	9.9 #23	3.9 #19	5.5 #20	9.4 #23
JAX allowed	2.1 #2	4.5 #5	6.6 #2	6.6 #31	7.2 #26	13.8 #31

JAX scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.4 #17	6.9 #14	11.3 #14	5.5 #7	6.4 #13	11.8 #8
CIN allowed	3.7 #11	7.9 #24	11.6 #18	4.6 #20	5.7 #14	10.4 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.