Panthers @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sun, Dec 3, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Division game

Weather at kickoff74°F10 mphgusts 23Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

1-10 · Power #31

final

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-7 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

TB -3.5

✓ CAR W

Total

▲ Over · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 19–22 TB

✓ TB (64%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTB -3.5

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTB -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 51% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTB -3.5

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 3.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 21–18; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 39 points went over 37, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 3.1; 38.3 points a game (usually 45.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEN vs CAR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	17–10	W	U36
Very close	IND vs HOU 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	31–32	L	O37.5
Very close	TEN vs HOU 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–19	L	U34
Very close	CHI vs CAR 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	16–13	L	U38
Very close	NE vs NYJ 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	28–14	W	O40.5
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	16–24	L	O37
Close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Close	CHI vs HOU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–20	P	O39.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	13–16	L	U40.5
Close	LV vs NYG 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	30–6	W	U38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR WLWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	2-4
TB WWWWL	4-3	57%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR UUUUU	1-5	17%	1-10
TB UOUUO	2-5	29%	4-7

Went over in Q4. Of 14 earlier overs in games with totals 34–40, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	1-9 10%	2-4 33%	1-5 17%
TB	3-7 30%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 25–23 TB CAR leads · 48 games since 2002 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.1 →−4.7▼ 2.6#31

TB+0.3 →−1.3▼ 1.6#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CAR

Longer bar = better

#30

Offense

TB better ▶

#23

#25

Defense

Even

#23

−0.6 #28

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.5 #7

65 plays #9

Pace

◀ CAR faster

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	CAR off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #29	20.6 #13	TB
Yards / play	4.07 #32	5.68 #27	TB
EPA / play	−0.17 #30	0.00 #25	TB
Success rate	37% #30	45% #27	Even

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #24	26.5 #30	TB
Yards / play	4.96 #23	5.03 #10	CAR
EPA / play	−0.03 #17	+0.05 #29	TB
Success rate	40% #27	46% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.1 #23	4.6 #27	7.7 #27	3.0 #26	5.0 #24	8.0 #25
TB allowed	4.8 #21	5.7 #8	10.5 #10	5.3 #25	4.8 #9	10.1 #18

TB scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.4 #28	7.1 #12	9.5 #25	3.0 #26	6.8 #9	9.8 #19
CAR allowed	3.4 #7	10.4 #32	13.7 #31	4.9 #21	7.9 #30	12.8 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.