Buccaneers @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sun, Nov 26, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-6 · Power #14

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

5-5 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -2.5

✓ IND W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 23–26 IND

✓ IND (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIND -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 2.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: IND won 27–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 5.1 against an average line of 2.6; 44.9 points a game (usually 45.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs NYJ 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	27–22	W	O44
Very close	TEN vs IND 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	19–10	W	U43
Very close	LAC vs TEN 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-3	17–14	P	U46.5
Very close	CLE vs PHI 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	22–17	W	U45.5
Very close	LAC vs NE 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2	0–45	L	U46.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	27–33	L	O47
Very close	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Very close	LV vs NE 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	30–24	W	O45.5
Very close	SF vs WSH 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	15–23	L	U43.5
Very close	ATL vs CHI 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	27–24	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LWWWW	4-2	67%	3-0	3-1
IND LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-0

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-6
IND OOOUU	3-2	60%	5-5

Went over in Q4. Of 19 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 11% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	4-6 40%	4-2 67%	1-5 17%
IND	5-5 50%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 3–4 IND IND leads · 7 games since 2003 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.3 →−1.0▼ 1.3#19

IND−3.9 →−0.8▲ 3.1#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

IND

#22

Offense

IND better ▶

#17

#21

Defense

Even

#20

+0.6 #6

Turnovers

◀ TB better

+0.1 #13

62 plays #21

Pace

IND faster ▶

65 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #23	24.8 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.92 #23	5.16 #13	IND
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	−0.03 #15	Even
Success rate	39% #27	44% #25	Even

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #9	20.0 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.19 #16	5.69 #27	IND
EPA / play	−0.05 #19	0.00 #22	Even
Success rate	40% #25	44% #26	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.3 #30	7.1 #15	9.4 #24	3.3 #26	6.5 #13	9.8 #20
IND allowed	5.5 #24	7.7 #19	13.2 #26	5.0 #21	6.0 #16	11.0 #21

IND scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.2 #12	7.7 #11	12.9 #9	4.2 #15	6.8 #9	11.0 #13
TB allowed	4.3 #16	5.6 #8	9.9 #9	5.5 #23	4.6 #6	10.1 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.