49ers @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Thu, Nov 23, 2023, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Seattle Seahawks · Division game

Weather at kickoff44°F12 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

7-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Seattle Seahawks

6-4 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

SF -7

✓ SF W

Total

▲ Over · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 28–21 SEA

✓ SF (74%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -7

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -7

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 7-point road favorite at SEA, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 43, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 7; 47 points a game (usually 47.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	48–22	W	O44
Very close	BAL @ NE 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	17–23	L	U44
Very close	SF @ MIN 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	17–22	L	U44.5
Close	PHI @ IND 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	17–16	L	U45.5
Close	NO @ PHI 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-8	21–24	L	O42.5
Close	GB @ BAL 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	31–30	L	O44.5
Close	DAL @ WSH 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	6–26	L	U41
Close	KC @ DEN 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	43–16	W	O46
Close	BUF @ NE 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	24–10	W	U44
Close	NE @ MIA 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	24–33	L	O41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF LLLWL	1-4	20%	1-2	1-4
SEA WPLLW	2-3-1	40%	1-1-1	1-2

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; SEA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OUOUU	2-3	40%	7-3
SEA UOUOU	2-4	33%	6-4

Went over in Q4. Of 16 earlier overs in games with totals 40–46, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	7-3 70%	1-4 20%	2-3 40%
SEA	6-4 60%	2-3-1 40%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SF 21–31 SEA SEA leads · 52 games since 2002 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+7.9 →+6.1▼ 1.8#1

SEA−7.8 →0.0▲ 7.8#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

SEA

Offense

◀ SF better

#12

Defense

◀ SF better

#16

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ SF better

+0.3 #11

60 plays #27

Pace

Even

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #3	21.8 #19	SF
Yards / play	6.44 #2	5.10 #13	SF
EPA / play	+0.16 #1	−0.04 #15	SF
Success rate	50% #2	42% #15	SF

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	SEA off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #16	15.7 #1	SF
Yards / play	5.44 #11	4.88 #6	SF
EPA / play	+0.01 #11	−0.11 #4	SF
Success rate	45% #9	42% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.5 #4	8.4 #7	14.9 #6	5.5 #6	7.5 #6	13.0 #5
SEA allowed	4.0 #12	6.8 #16	10.8 #12	3.9 #13	7.1 #25	11.0 #20

SEA scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	6.1 #6	5.1 #25	11.2 #17	4.3 #13	5.5 #21	9.8 #19
SF allowed	2.7 #3	6.7 #15	9.4 #7	3.0 #7	3.3 #1	6.3 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.