Saints @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sun, Nov 26, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Atlanta Falcons · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

5-5 · Power #11

final

Final

Atlanta Falcons

4-6 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

NO -2

✓ ATL W

Total

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 25–23 ATL

✗ NO (57%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -2

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNO -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -2

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 2-point road favorite at ATL, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 24–15 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 42, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 1.9; 41.4 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE @ ARI 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	27–13	W	U44
Very close	TB @ CLE 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	17–23	L	U42
Very close	NO @ IND 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2	38–27	W	O44
Very close	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	6–23	L	U43
Close	BAL @ CHI 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	16–13	W	U41
Close	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Close	BAL @ CLE 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & spread	-1	22–24	L	O44
Close	LAC @ NYJ 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-2	27–6	W	U42
Close	CIN @ TEN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	20–16	W	U42.5
Close	CIN @ NO 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-1	30–26	W	O43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-2	2-3
ATL LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-2	1-0

Venue/role: NO away, as favorite; ATL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOOPO	3-1-1	75%	5-5
ATL UUOOO	3-2	60%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 39% of games with totals 39–45 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	5-5 50%	2-3 40%	3-1-1 75%
ATL	4-6 40%	1-4 20%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 32–23 ATL NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.8 →+0.8–#12

ATL+2.1 →−1.4▼ 3.5#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

ATL

#19

Offense

◀ NO better

#23

Defense

◀ NO better

#12

+0.6 #7

Turnovers

◀ NO better

−0.6 #28

68 plays #3

Pace

Even

66 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	NO off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #16	21.7 #18	Even
Yards / play	4.94 #22	4.98 #9	ATL
EPA / play	−0.03 #17	−0.05 #13	Even
Success rate	42% #22	40% #6	ATL

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	ATL off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #24	19.8 #8	NO
Yards / play	5.06 #20	5.05 #12	NO
EPA / play	−0.10 #24	−0.10 #6	NO
Success rate	41% #23	39% #2	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	5.0 #13	5.7 #20	10.7 #18	4.7 #11	6.0 #15	10.7 #15
ATL allowed	3.6 #10	8.3 #25	11.9 #17	5.5 #23	4.3 #5	9.8 #13

ATL scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	3.0 #25	4.4 #27	7.4 #28	3.5 #23	8.0 #5	11.5 #10
NO allowed	4.0 #12	7.8 #21	11.8 #14	1.9 #3	6.1 #19	8.0 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.