Commanders @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Thu, Nov 23, 2023, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Dallas Cowboys · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

4-7 · Power #32

final

Final

Dallas Cowboys

7-3 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

DAL -13

✓ DAL W

Total

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 20–32 DAL

✓ DAL (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -13

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDAL -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -13

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 13-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 45–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 48, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 19.8 against an average line of 12.9; 45 points a game (usually 43.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs ATL 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-14	29–15	P	U46
Very close	BAL vs CIN 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-12	27–3	W	U49
Very close	KC vs DEN 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13	27–24	L	O46
Very close	BAL vs JAX 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-12.5	40–14	W	O48.5
Very close	KC vs DEN 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13	22–16	L	U51.5
Close	GB vs JAX 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	24–20	L	U47
Close	TB vs CHI 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-12	38–3	W	U47
Close	BUF vs PIT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-14	38–3	W	U44.5
Close	KC vs PIT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-12	42–21	W	O46
Close	LAR vs JAX 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-13	37–7	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LPWWL	5-5-1	50%	5-1	5-1-1
DAL WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-0	4-0

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UOUOO	5-4	56%	4-7
DAL UOOOU	3-2	60%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 11 earlier overs in games with totals 45–51, 9% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%	5-3 63%
DAL	7-3 70%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 16–39 DAL DAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.4 →−3.6▼ 4.0#29

DAL+9.1 →+5.6▼ 3.5#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WSH

Longer bar = better

DAL

#18

Offense

DAL better ▶

#25

Defense

DAL better ▶

−0.7 #32

Turnovers

DAL better ▶

+0.6 #8

66 plays #7

Pace

Even

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: DAL defense

	WSH off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #17	17.5 #5	DAL
Yards / play	5.19 #17	4.61 #3	DAL
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	−0.16 #2	DAL
Success rate	42% #17	41% #7	DAL

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #2	27.7 #32	DAL
Yards / play	5.56 #9	5.75 #28	DAL
EPA / play	+0.09 #4	+0.04 #29	DAL
Success rate	46% #7	41% #9	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.5 #22	6.1 #18	9.6 #23	4.4 #13	7.5 #6	11.8 #9
DAL allowed	3.6 #9	5.2 #7	8.8 #4	4.6 #18	4.1 #4	8.7 #8

DAL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	8.1 #1	11.3 #2	19.4 #1	3.9 #20	6.9 #8	10.8 #14
WSH allowed	5.8 #26	8.5 #27	14.4 #30	3.1 #8	10.0 #32	13.1 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.