Cowboys @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Carolina Panthers

Weather at kickoff61°F3 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

6-3 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Carolina Panthers

1-8 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

DAL -11

✓ DAL W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 30–19 CAR

✓ DAL (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -11

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDAL -11

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -11

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as an 11-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 33–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 11.1; 45.7 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL @ NYG 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-11.5	21–6	W	U43.5
Very close	CIN @ NYJ 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-10.5	31–34	L	O43
Close	TB @ CAR 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-11.5	32–6	W	U44
Close	TEN @ HOU 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total	-10.5	28–25	L	O42.5
Close	BAL @ PHI 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-10	30–28	L	O46.5
Close	TB @ NYG 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & rest	-12.5	25–23	L	O47
Close	BAL @ ARI 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-9.5	31–24	L	O45
Close	PIT @ JAX 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-10.5	27–3	W	U47.5
Close	PHI @ HOU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-13	29–17	L	O45.5
Close	BUF @ NYJ 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-11	17–20	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL –WWLW	3-1	75%	1-1	3-0
CAR –LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: DAL away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL –UOOO	3-1	75%	6-3
CAR –OUUU	1-3	25%	1-8

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 40% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DALlast 9	6-3 67%	3-1 75%	3-1 75%
CARlast 9	1-8 11%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DAL 11–4 CAR DAL leads · 15 games since 2000 · CAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+9.1 →+4.9▼ 4.2#3

CAR−2.1 →−4.2▼ 2.1#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

DAL

Longer bar = better

CAR

Offense

◀ DAL better

#30

Defense

◀ DAL better

#25

+0.4 #8

Turnovers

◀ DAL better

−0.4 #25

67 plays #5

Pace

Even

66 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #2	26.9 #30	DAL
Yards / play	5.67 #8	5.09 #13	DAL
EPA / play	+0.08 #5	+0.04 #29	DAL
Success rate	46% #7	46% #29	DAL

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: DAL defense

	CAR off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #29	18.3 #4	DAL
Yards / play	4.18 #31	4.77 #4	DAL
EPA / play	−0.16 #30	−0.15 #3	DAL
Success rate	38% #30	42% #9	DAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	8.2 #1	11.4 #2	19.7 #1	4.3 #14	5.9 #19	10.2 #17
CAR allowed	2.6 #3	10.4 #32	13.0 #25	6.0 #26	7.9 #29	13.9 #30

CAR scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.8 #19	5.0 #25	8.8 #26	2.1 #29	6.1 #16	8.2 #25
DAL allowed	4.0 #13	5.4 #6	9.4 #7	4.3 #15	4.6 #8	8.9 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.