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| Status | Matchup | 1H spread | Move | 1H total | Model | Trend | Details |
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2023 team 1st-half records
| Team | GP | 1H ATS | Cover % | 1H O-U | Led-trailed | 1H PF | 1H PA | 1H margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens |
19 | 11-3 | 78.6% | 7-6-1 | 14-3-2 | 14.6 | 7.7 | +6.9 |
 Dallas Cowboys |
18 | 9-4 | 69.2% | 8-5 | 12-6 | 16.8 | 11.1 | +5.8 |
 Chicago Bears |
17 | 9-4 | 69.2% | 6-5-2 | 5-9-3 | 11.3 | 11.1 | +0.2 |
 Detroit Lions |
20 | 10-5 | 66.7% | 8-5-2 | 15-4-1 | 15.3 | 10.2 | +5.1 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
19 | 10-5 | 66.7% | 7-8 | 10-6-3 | 9.9 | 9.2 | +0.7 |
 Tennessee Titans |
17 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 5-6-1 | 10-7 | 10.4 | 9.4 | +1.0 |
 Denver Broncos |
17 | 8-5-1 | 61.5% | 3-9-1 | 10-7 | 9.9 | 11.2 | -1.4 |
 Atlanta Falcons |
17 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 8-4 | 6-8-3 | 8.9 | 11.4 | -2.4 |
 Cincinnati Bengals |
17 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 9-3 | 7-7-3 | 10.6 | 11.8 | -1.1 |
 Minnesota Vikings |
17 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 5-7 | 6-7-4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | +0.1 |
 Houston Texans |
19 | 8-6 | 57.1% | 6-8 | 11-6-2 | 11.6 | 9.3 | +2.4 |
 Green Bay Packers |
19 | 8-6-1 | 57.1% | 6-9 | 10-8-1 | 10.6 | 9.6 | +1.0 |
 Buffalo Bills |
19 | 9-7 | 56.3% | 7-7 | 13-6 | 14.2 | 9.7 | +4.5 |
 Indianapolis Colts |
17 | 6-5-1 | 54.5% | 8-4 | 8-8-1 | 12.6 | 12.7 | -0.1 |
 New York Giants |
17 | 6-5-1 | 54.5% | 6-6 | 5-12 | 6.6 | 12.5 | -5.9 |
 Los Angeles Rams |
18 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 8-5 | 8-8-2 | 12.2 | 11.7 | +0.5 |
 Las Vegas Raiders |
17 | 9-8 | 52.9% | 8-7-1 | 6-9-2 | 11.9 | 10.1 | +1.8 |
 Cleveland Browns |
18 | 7-7 | 50% | 10-4 | 8-9-1 | 12.6 | 12.1 | +0.5 |
 Jacksonville Jaguars |
17 | 6-6 | 50% | 5-7 | 9-7-1 | 9.8 | 8.9 | +0.9 |
 Miami Dolphins |
18 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 9-4 | 12-6 | 16.2 | 12.6 | +3.6 |
 New England Patriots |
17 | 5-6-1 | 45.5% | 5-7 | 4-13 | 7.1 | 12.1 | -4.9 |
 Kansas City Chiefs |
21 | 7-9 | 43.8% | 9-6-1 | 12-7-2 | 13.9 | 10.0 | +4.0 |
 New York Jets |
17 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 6-6 | 4-12-1 | 7.7 | 13.2 | -5.5 |
 San Francisco 49ers |
20 | 6-9 | 40% | 8-7 | 15-4-1 | 14.6 | 9.6 | +5.0 |
 Seattle Seahawks |
17 | 5-8 | 38.5% | 7-6 | 7-9-1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | -1.8 |
 Philadelphia Eagles |
18 | 5-9 | 35.7% | 11-3 | 9-9 | 11.7 | 12.9 | -1.2 |
 Los Angeles Chargers |
17 | 5-9 | 35.7% | 6-8 | 6-10-1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | -2.1 |
 Arizona Cardinals |
17 | 4-9 | 30.8% | 8-5 | 5-12 | 10.4 | 14.1 | -3.8 |
 Washington Commanders |
17 | 5-12 | 29.4% | 11-4 | 3-13-1 | 8.8 | 16.6 | -7.8 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers |
18 | 4-10 | 28.6% | 7-7 | 5-12-1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | -3.3 |
 Carolina Panthers |
17 | 3-9 | 25% | 4-7-1 | 3-13-1 | 6.1 | 12.8 | -6.6 |
 New Orleans Saints |
17 | 2-9-1 | 18.2% | 9-3 | 7-8-2 | 10.9 | 11.7 | -0.8 |
How it works
Halftime scores come from ESPN quarter scores (Q1 + Q2) for every game since 2015.
1st-half lines. Real 1st-half lines come from ESPN’s odds feed (DraftKings, 2025 on) and The Odds API’s US books where a game has them; every other game is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.555, total × 0.5, rounded to the half point, the ratios real NFL 1st-half lines show). A real line shows its book; an estimated one is marked “est.”
Projection. The full-game model's margin and total, scaled the same way, with 25% of the margin from ratings fitted to 1st-half scores. The blend was chosen by the lowest walk-forward error.
Spread edge and Total edge. The model’s 1st-half line (total) minus the market’s, in points. A lean starts when the projection beats the 1H line by 1.5–5 pts (ATS) or 2.5+ pts (O/U). Shown for context: neither has a proven edge.
Picks and prices. For a game with a posted 1st-half line, tap Pick on its tile to save a 1H spread or total pick (graded on the halftime score; they show in My picks). The game card’s Market tab lists every book’s 1st-half price.
NFL first-half betting FAQ
What is a first-half spread in the NFL?
A first-half (1H) spread is a point spread graded on the score at halftime only. A team covers the 1st-half spread when its 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line is positive; the 2nd half and overtime don't count.
How are NFL first-half lines set here?
Real 1st-half lines come from ESPN’s odds feed (DraftKings, 2025 on) and The Odds API’s US books where a game has them; every other game is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.555, total × 0.5, rounded to the half point, the ratios real NFL 1st-half lines show).
How is the 1st-half projection made?
The full-game power-rating model's margin and total are scaled to the first half, with 25% of the margin from ratings fitted to 1st-half scores. Every past week is predicted only from games played before it.
Do the 1st-half leans beat the market?
Not so far. Over 2016–26, 1st-half ATS leans went 479-476 (50.2%) and over/under leans 101-106 (48.8%), below or near the 52.4% needed to break even at -110 odds, so they are shown as context only.
How often does the model pick the team leading at halftime?
61.9% of 2,855 NFL games in the 2016–26 walk-forward backtest.