Bengals @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Thu, Nov 16, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Baltimore Ravens · Division game

Weather at kickoff48°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

5-4 · Power #17

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

7-3 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

✓ BAL W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 22–26 BAL

✓ BAL (64%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAL -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 3.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 34–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 3.6; 39.7 points a game (usually 46.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAR vs PHI 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	18–21	L	U47
Very close	PHI vs TEN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-4.5	35–10	W	O44.5
Very close	CIN vs CLE 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-4.5	23–10	W	U47
Close	LAR vs NE 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	24–3	W	U43.5
Close	ARI vs IND 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-3	16–22	L	U48
Close	SF vs DAL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	19–12	W	U46.5
Close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	38–7	W	U50
Close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar total & situation	-3	24–27	L	O47
Close	CIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	41–10	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN –WWWL	3-1	75%	1-0	1-0
BAL WWLWL	3-2	60%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN –UOUO	2-2	50%	5-4
BAL UOOUO	3-2	60%	7-3

Went over in Q4. Of 16 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CINlast 9	5-4 56%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
BAL	7-3 70%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 25–30 BAL BAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · BAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	Baltimore Ravens 27 @ Cincinnati Bengals 24	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−6.0 →−0.1▲ 5.9#16

BAL+2.2 →+5.0▲ 2.8#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CIN

Longer bar = better

BAL

#18

Offense

BAL better ▶

#25

Defense

BAL better ▶

+1.1 #1

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

+0.1 #15

62 plays #19

Pace

Even

63 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	CIN off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #20	15.7 #1	BAL
Yards / play	4.87 #24	4.18 #1	BAL
EPA / play	−0.03 #17	−0.17 #2	BAL
Success rate	44% #11	39% #3	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #5	21.3 #16	BAL
Yards / play	5.74 #6	6.08 #31	BAL
EPA / play	+0.04 #9	0.00 #22	BAL
Success rate	47% #4	46% #30	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	6.1 #7	4.1 #30	10.2 #20	4.4 #12	5.6 #22	10.0 #20
BAL allowed	1.6 #1	3.8 #2	5.4 #1	2.8 #6	7.2 #25	10.0 #15

BAL scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	7.9 #2	7.3 #14	15.2 #6	6.3 #5	5.5 #23	11.8 #8
CIN allowed	3.8 #10	7.8 #22	11.6 #13	4.2 #15	5.6 #13	9.8 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.