Steelers @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Cleveland Browns · Division game

Weather at kickoff46°F12 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

6-3 · Power #19

final

Final

Cleveland Browns

6-3 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

✓ CLE W

Total

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 19–23 CLE

✓ CLE (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -2.5

Total34

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLE -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close34

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -2.5

Total34

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 2.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 13–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 34, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 46%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 3.2 against an average line of 2.7; 28.6 points a game (usually 45.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	13–16	L	U35.5
Close	CLE vs NO 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	10–17	L	U32
Close	TEN vs HOU 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-3	14–19	L	U34
Close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–24	L	O37
Close	NE vs NYJ 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	10–3	W	U38
Close	PIT vs TEN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3	20–16	W	P36
Loose	DEN vs NYJ 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-1	9–16	L	U36.5
Loose	TB vs ATL 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	13–16	L	U37.5
Loose	NYJ vs JAX 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar spread & season form	-2.5	3–19	L	U36.5
Loose	WSH vs ATL 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–13	W	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT –WLWW	4-1	80%	2-0	2-1
CLE WLPWW	3-1-1	75%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; CLE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT –UUPO	1-3-1	25%	6-3
CLE OOOUO	4-1	80%	6-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITlast 9	6-3 67%	4-1 80%	1-3-1 25%
CLElast 9	6-3 67%	3-1-1 75%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PIT 42–14 CLE (1 tied) PIT leads · 57 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 18 2023	Cleveland Browns 22 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 26	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−7.9 →−2.4▲ 5.5#24

CLE+6.0 →+3.4▼ 2.6#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

PIT

Longer bar = better

CLE

#25

Offense

Even

#24

#17

Defense

CLE better ▶

+1.1 #1

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.4 #26

59 plays #29

Pace

CLE faster ▶

72 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	PIT off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #26	18.9 #6	CLE
Yards / play	4.77 #27	4.53 #2	CLE
EPA / play	−0.11 #24	−0.25 #1	CLE
Success rate	40% #24	33% #1	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	CLE off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #11	20.2 #11	Even
Yards / play	4.63 #30	5.60 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.14 #27	−0.05 #13	PIT
Success rate	39% #28	43% #17	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	3.1 #23	4.9 #27	8.0 #27	4.3 #14	5.0 #25	9.3 #22
CLE allowed	7.7 #32	4.0 #2	11.7 #14	2.2 #5	5.0 #10	7.2 #3

CLE scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	2.9 #26	9.3 #5	12.2 #11	5.3 #6	6.2 #15	11.6 #9
PIT allowed	5.9 #28	6.4 #12	12.3 #21	4.4 #18	3.4 #2	7.9 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.