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NFL · 1st half

NFL first-half team trends · 2023

NFL first-half team trends, 2023

Who covers the 1st half, who goes over or under at halftime, who starts fast and who finishes strong. Graded against 1st-half lines (real ESPN lines for the NFL from 2025, otherwise estimated).

Best 1st-half ATS

4+ games
1Baltimore Ravens11-378.6%
2Dallas Cowboys9-469.2%
3Chicago Bears9-469.2%
4Detroit Lions10-566.7%
5Tampa Bay Buccaneers10-566.7%
6Tennessee Titans8-466.7%
7Denver Broncos8-5-161.5%
8Atlanta Falcons7-558.3%

Worst 1st-half ATS

4+ games
1New Orleans Saints2-9-118.2%
2Carolina Panthers3-925%
3Pittsburgh Steelers4-1028.6%
4Washington Commanders5-1229.4%
5Arizona Cardinals4-930.8%
6Philadelphia Eagles5-935.7%
7Los Angeles Chargers5-935.7%
8Seattle Seahawks5-838.5%

1st-half overs

Over the 1H total
1Philadelphia Eagles11-378.6%
2Cincinnati Bengals9-375%
3New Orleans Saints9-375%
4Washington Commanders11-473.3%
5Cleveland Browns10-471.4%
6Miami Dolphins9-469.2%
7Atlanta Falcons8-466.7%
8Indianapolis Colts8-466.7%

1st-half unders

Under the 1H total
1Denver Broncos3-9-175% U
2Carolina Panthers4-7-163.6% U
3Green Bay Packers6-960% U
4Jacksonville Jaguars5-758.3% U
5Minnesota Vikings5-758.3% U
6New England Patriots5-758.3% U
7Houston Texans6-857.1% U
8Los Angeles Chargers6-857.1% U

Fast starters

Ahead in the 1st half, better than in the 2nd
1Detroit Lions1H +5.12H -1.5
2Tennessee Titans1H +1.02H -4.6
3Las Vegas Raiders1H +1.82H -1.8
4Houston Texans1H +2.42H -0.7
5Kansas City Chiefs1H +4.02H +1.2
6Miami Dolphins1H +3.62H +1.2
7Baltimore Ravens1H +6.92H +4.6
8Dallas Cowboys1H +5.82H +4.1

Active 1H cover streaks

Consecutive 1st halves covered or missed
1Houston TexansCovered 4
2Chicago BearsCovered 4
3Tampa Bay BuccaneersCovered 3
4Cincinnati BengalsCovered 2
5Green Bay PackersCovered 2
6Buffalo BillsCovered 2
7Carolina PanthersMissed 8
8Arizona CardinalsMissed 4

1st-half ATS splits

Home / away, 1st-half favorite / underdog, last 5 games and current streak
TeamGP1H ATSCover %HomeAwayAs favAs dogLast 51H O-UStreak
Baltimore Ravens1911-378.6% 6-34-0 9-32-0 3-27-6-1 L2
Dallas Cowboys189-469.2% 5-24-2 8-21-2 2-38-5 L1
Chicago Bears179-469.2% 3-36-1 2-17-3 4-16-5-2 W4
Detroit Lions2010-566.7% 4-36-2 9-31-2 3-28-5-2 W1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1910-566.7% 4-36-2 3-27-3 4-17-8 W3
Tennessee Titans178-466.7% 6-02-3 2-06-4 4-15-6-1 W1
Denver Broncos178-5-161.5% 6-1-12-4 5-1-13-4 2-2-13-9-1 L1
Atlanta Falcons177-558.3% 2-35-2 4-43-1 3-28-4 W1
Cincinnati Bengals177-558.3% 4-33-2 3-44-1 2-39-3 W2
Minnesota Vikings177-558.3% 2-35-2 1-25-3 1-45-7 L3
Houston Texans198-657.1% 5-33-3 4-34-3 4-16-8 W4
Green Bay Packers198-6-157.1% 3-35-3-1 3-2-15-3 4-16-9 W2
Buffalo Bills199-756.3% 6-33-4 7-62-1 2-37-7 W2
Indianapolis Colts176-5-154.5% 3-2-12-3 5-11-4-1 3-28-4 L1
New York Giants176-5-154.5% 3-2-13-3 —6-5-1 2-2-16-6 W1
Los Angeles Rams187-653.8% 4-23-4 6-21-4 3-28-5 L2
Las Vegas Raiders179-852.9% 7-22-6 5-24-5 4-18-7-1 W1
Cleveland Browns187-750% 5-12-6 6-21-5 2-310-4 L2
Jacksonville Jaguars176-650% 3-33-3 5-31-3 1-45-7 L1
Miami Dolphins186-746.2% 4-32-3 5-41-3 3-29-4 L1
New England Patriots175-6-145.5% 3-22-3-1 1-24-4-1 3-1-15-7 L1
Kansas City Chiefs217-943.8% 4-32-5 4-73-2 3-29-6-1 L1
New York Jets175-741.7% 2-43-3 2-02-7 3-26-6 W1
San Francisco 49ers206-940% 1-64-3 6-9— 2-38-7 W1
Seattle Seahawks175-838.5% 1-54-3 2-43-4 2-37-6 W1
Philadelphia Eagles185-935.7% 3-42-5 5-60-3 3-211-3 L2
Los Angeles Chargers175-935.7% 3-52-4 4-31-6 1-46-8 L2
Arizona Cardinals174-930.8% 0-54-4 —4-9 1-48-5 L4
Washington Commanders175-1229.4% 2-63-6 0-45-8 1-411-4 L1
Pittsburgh Steelers184-1028.6% 2-42-6 1-53-5 2-37-7 L2
Carolina Panthers173-925% 1-52-4 —3-9 0-54-7-1 L8
New Orleans Saints172-9-118.2% 1-51-4-1 1-7-11-2 2-39-3 L1

Starts and finishes

1st half vs 2nd half: margins, leads that held or slipped, and halves that split from the full game
TeamGPAt half1H margin2H margin1H shareLed, lostTrailed, won1H cover onlyGame cover only
Detroit Lions20 15-4-1+5.1-1.5 56% 3122
Tennessee Titans17 10-7+1.0-4.6 58% 5130
Las Vegas Raiders17 6-9-2+1.8-1.8 61% 0213
Houston Texans19 11-6-2+2.4-0.7 51% 2221
Kansas City Chiefs21 12-7-2+4.0+1.2 63% 2314
Miami Dolphins18 12-6+3.6+1.2 58% 1011
Baltimore Ravens19 14-3-2+6.9+4.6 53% 2131
Dallas Cowboys18 12-6+5.8+4.1 56% 1120
Chicago Bears17 5-9-3+0.2-1.4 53% 1231
Jacksonville Jaguars17 9-7-1+0.9-0.5 44% 0000
Minnesota Vikings17 6-7-4+0.1-1.1 47% 2200
Buffalo Bills19 13-6+4.5+3.4 53% 3231
Indianapolis Colts17 8-8-1-0.1-1.0 54% 0122
Cleveland Browns18 8-9-1+0.5-0.3 55% 0212
Denver Broncos17 10-7-1.4-1.9 47% 4230
San Francisco 49ers20 15-4-1+5.0+4.8 51% 3121
Arizona Cardinals17 5-12-3.8-3.6 53% 3225
Green Bay Packers19 10-8-1+1.0+1.4 45% 2112
Los Angeles Rams18 8-8-2+0.5+0.9 52% 2423
Tampa Bay Buccaneers19 10-6-3+0.7+1.3 47% 1021
Los Angeles Chargers17 6-10-1-2.1-1.0 55% 1000
Cincinnati Bengals17 7-7-3-1.1+0.1 49% 2121
Seattle Seahawks17 7-9-1-1.8-0.5 49% 3412
Philadelphia Eagles18 9-9-1.2+0.2 48% 3543
Atlanta Falcons17 6-8-3-2.4-0.6 47% 3230
New England Patriots17 4-13-4.9-2.7 51% 1110
Carolina Panthers17 3-13-1-6.6-3.9 44% 3213
New York Giants17 5-12-5.9-2.4 42% 1212
Washington Commanders17 3-13-1-7.8-3.3 46% 2313
Pittsburgh Steelers18 5-12-1-3.3+1.4 49% 0404
New York Jets17 4-12-1-5.5+0.4 49% 1321
New Orleans Saints17 7-8-2-0.8+5.2 46% 1103

1st-half trend signals

Backtest 2016–26: each game graded with the teams’ records from earlier that season · break-even 52.4%
SignalRuleRecordVerdict
Hot 1st-half cover teamCovered 70%+ of 1st halves this season (5+ decisions)190-186 (50.5%)No edge
Fade a cold 1st-half teamOpponent covered 30% or less of 1st halves this season (5+ decisions)184-185 (49.9%)No edge
1st-half over teamsBoth teams went over in 65%+ of their 1st halves (4+ each)40-30 (57.1%)Not proven yet
1st-half under teamsBoth teams went under in 65%+ of their 1st halves (4+ each)48-49 (49.5%)No edge
Fast starter edgeAverage 1st-half margins point past the 1st-half line337-341 (49.7%)No edge
These trends appear on the weekly Halftime table when a game qualifies. None has a proven edge yet, so they describe the data rather than pick bets.