Panthers @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sun, Nov 26, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Tennessee Titans

Weather at kickoff52°F14 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

1-9 · Power #31

final

Final

Tennessee Titans

3-7 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

✓ TEN W

Total

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 18–22 TEN

✓ TEN (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEN -3.5

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEN -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close36

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEN -3.5

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEN as a 3.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TEN won 17–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 36, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 3.1; 40.7 points a game (usually 46.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEN vs HOU 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–19	L	U34
Very close	IND vs HOU 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–32	L	O37.5
Very close	CHI vs CAR 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	16–13	L	U38
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–24	L	O37
Very close	LV vs NYG 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	30–6	W	U38.5
Close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Close	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5
Close	PIT vs TEN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-3	20–16	W	P36
Close	CHI vs HOU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–20	P	O39.5
Close	NE vs NYJ 2020 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	28–14	W	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-3
TEN LWLLL	1-4	20%	1-0	—

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; TEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OUUUU	1-4	20%	1-9
TEN UOPUO	2-2-1	50%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 45% of games with totals 33–39 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	1-9 10%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%
TEN	3-7 30%	1-4 20%	2-2-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 2–4 TEN TEN leads · 6 games since 2003 · TEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.1 →−4.8▼ 2.7#31

TEN−0.8 →−2.6▼ 1.8#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CAR

Longer bar = better

TEN

#30

Offense

TEN better ▶

#24

#25

Defense

Even

#23

−0.6 #29

Turnovers

TEN better ▶

−0.5 #25

65 plays #11

Pace

◀ CAR faster

57 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: TEN defense

	CAR off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	16.3 #29	21.4 #16	TEN
Yards / play	4.09 #32	5.41 #25	TEN
EPA / play	−0.17 #30	+0.04 #29	Even
Success rate	38% #30	43% #20	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	16.8 #27	27.5 #31	Even
Yards / play	5.06 #19	5.03 #10	CAR
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	+0.05 #30	TEN
Success rate	39% #28	46% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.4 #22	4.8 #25	8.2 #26	2.6 #28	5.5 #21	8.1 #26
TEN allowed	4.2 #14	5.5 #7	9.7 #8	5.7 #27	6.0 #16	11.7 #26

TEN scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	2.8 #26	5.7 #20	8.5 #25	4.7 #11	3.3 #30	8.0 #27
CAR allowed	3.0 #5	10.4 #32	13.4 #28	5.4 #22	8.7 #31	14.1 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.