Dolphins @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Fri, Nov 24, 2023, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at New York Jets · Division game

Weather at kickoff47°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

7-3 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

4-6 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

MIA -8.5

✓ MIA W

Total

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 29–20 NYJ

✓ MIA (78%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -8.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -8.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as an 8.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIA won 34–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 40, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 7.7; 52.7 points a game (usually 47.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ CHI 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread	-9	35–13	W	O40.5
Very close	NO @ PHI 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8	21–24	L	O42.5
Very close	KC @ DEN 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	34–28	L	O44
Close	DAL @ WSH 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	6–26	L	U41
Close	PHI @ WSH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-7	38–31	P	O42.5
Close	BUF @ NE 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	25–29	L	O39.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	48–22	W	O44
Close	SEA @ LAR 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-7	27–23	L	O41
Close	ARI @ CHI 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	33–22	W	O43
Close	MIN @ CHI 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	29–13	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WLWLL	2-3	40%	0-1	2-2
NYJ WPLLL	1-3-1	25%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUOUU	2-3	40%	7-3
NYJ UUUUU	0-5	0%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 37–43, 40% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	7-3 70%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%
NYJ	4-6 40%	1-3-1 25%	0-5 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 28–26 NYJ MIA leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+2.1 →+3.3▲ 1.2#6

NYJ+1.0 →−2.5▼ 3.5#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MIA

Longer bar = better

NYJ

Offense

◀ MIA better

#31

#19

Defense

NYJ better ▶

−0.4 #21

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #20

62 plays #20

Pace

◀ MIA faster

59 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #2	20.4 #12	MIA
Yards / play	6.99 #1	4.71 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.13 #3	−0.07 #8	MIA
Success rate	49% #3	39% #3	Even

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	NYJ off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	23.8 #25	MIA
Yards / play	4.55 #29	5.06 #12	MIA
EPA / play	−0.24 #32	−0.04 #14	MIA
Success rate	36% #32	44% #24	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.5 #10	11.0 #3	16.5 #3	8.2 #1	5.8 #18	14.0 #2
NYJ allowed	7.0 #32	6.0 #10	13.0 #25	3.2 #8	4.2 #5	7.4 #3

NYJ scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	1.8 #31	5.2 #24	7.0 #30	2.7 #28	4.4 #28	7.1 #28
MIA allowed	6.9 #30	7.7 #18	14.6 #30	3.0 #7	6.2 #20	9.2 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.