Bills @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sun, Nov 26, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Weather at kickoff47°F7 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

6-5 · Power #4

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

9-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

✓ PHI W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 25–27 PHI

✓ PHI (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePHI -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 2.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 37–34; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 2.8; 51.7 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs IND 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	16–22	L	U48
Very close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–27	L	O47
Very close	KC vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-2	23–20	W	U48.5
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	34–11	W	U48.5
Very close	BUF vs BAL 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–3	W	U50
Very close	TB vs LAR 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-3	27–30	L	O48
Very close	TB vs KC 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	31–41	L	O47.5
Very close	CLE vs ARI 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	14–37	L	O48.5
Very close	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	47–42	W	O47
Very close	PHI vs DAL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-3.5	28–23	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LLLLW	3-5	38%	1-2	0-1
PHI LWPWW	3-2-1	60%	2-1	2-2-1

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUUUU	1-5	17%	6-5
PHI UUOOU	3-3	50%	9-1

Went over in Q4. Of 10 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 10% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	6-4 60%	3-5 38%	1-5 17%
PHI	9-1 90%	3-2-1 60%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 2–6 PHI PHI leads · 8 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF−1.0 →+3.0▲ 4.0#9

PHI0.0 →+3.8▲ 3.8#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BUF

Longer bar = better

PHI

Offense

◀ BUF better

#10

Defense

◀ BUF better

#15

0.0 #16

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #18

63 plays #20

Pace

PHI faster ▶

67 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #7	21.2 #15	BUF
Yards / play	5.95 #3	5.19 #16	BUF
EPA / play	+0.13 #2	−0.03 #17	BUF
Success rate	51% #1	42% #10	BUF

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #5	17.3 #5	Even
Yards / play	5.41 #11	5.20 #17	PHI
EPA / play	+0.08 #5	−0.07 #7	Even
Success rate	46% #7	42% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.5 #15	8.1 #9	12.6 #10	4.9 #8	9.2 #1	14.1 #2
PHI allowed	3.8 #12	8.7 #28	12.5 #22	1.7 #2	7.0 #24	8.7 #9

PHI scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	6.3 #5	6.8 #16	13.1 #9	7.2 #3	6.7 #11	13.9 #3
BUF allowed	5.0 #22	4.9 #6	9.9 #9	1.1 #1	5.7 #15	6.8 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.