Packers @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Thu, Nov 23, 2023, 12:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Detroit Lions · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

4-6 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Detroit Lions

8-2 · Power #6

final

Closing spread

DET -8.5

✓ GB W

Total

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 21–30 DET

✗ DET (78%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -8.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDET -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -8.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as an 8.5-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 29–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 47, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.4 against an average line of 8.4; 49.6 points a game (usually 47.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs CLE 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread	-8	24–22	L	U47
Very close	LAC vs DEN 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-8	34–13	W	O45.5
Very close	DET vs CHI 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-8	31–26	L	O48
Very close	BAL vs IND 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	31–25	L	O46.5
Very close	LAR vs SEA 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & season form	-7	20–10	W	U47
Very close	IND vs LV 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	20–23	L	U46.5
Very close	GB vs PHI 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-8.5	30–16	W	U50
Very close	KC vs LV 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-10	48–9	W	O48
Very close	SF vs ATL 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-8.5	31–13	W	U48
Very close	DAL vs WSH 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	56–14	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WLWLW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-2
DET WLWWL	3-2	60%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UUUOU	1-5	17%	4-6
DET UOUOO	3-2	60%	8-2

Went over in Q4. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 44–50, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	4-6 40%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
DET	8-2 80%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GB 36–18 DET GB leads · 54 games since 1999 · GB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2023	Detroit Lions 34 @ Green Bay Packers 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+5.2 →−1.3▼ 6.5#20

DET+1.7 →+3.1▲ 1.4#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

DET

#18

Offense

DET better ▶

#16

Defense

Even

#18

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #18

62 plays #24

Pace

DET faster ▶

68 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	20.2 #21	22.9 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.20 #15	5.17 #16	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #13	−0.05 #13	Even
Success rate	42% #21	44% #22	Even

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #6	20.2 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #4	5.08 #13	DET
EPA / play	+0.07 #6	0.00 #21	DET
Success rate	47% #4	44% #21	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	2.0 #30	3.9 #31	5.9 #31	7.8 #2	6.5 #12	14.3 #1
DET allowed	3.4 #7	6.8 #14	10.2 #11	5.5 #23	6.6 #21	12.1 #26

DET scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	6.1 #6	9.2 #6	15.3 #6	3.5 #22	8.4 #3	11.9 #7
GB allowed	4.7 #20	7.1 #17	11.8 #14	3.8 #13	4.6 #7	8.4 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.