Broncos @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sun, Dec 3, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

6-5 · Power #25

final

Final

Houston Texans

6-5 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -3

✓ HOU W

Total

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 25–28 HOU

✓ HOU (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -3

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHOU -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -3

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 3-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 22–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 47, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 3.1; 45.8 points a game (usually 46.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs NYG 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–31	L	O48
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	27–33	L	O47
Very close	MIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	36–28	W	O45
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–17	W	O45
Very close	LAC vs TEN 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–14	P	U46.5
Very close	MIN vs CAR 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	28–27	L	O50
Very close	GB vs MIN 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	41–17	W	O47.5
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–10	W	U47.5
Very close	CLE vs PHI 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	22–17	W	U45.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	10–12	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LWWLW	3-5	38%	1-1	2-1
HOU LLWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	0-3

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UUUUO	1-6	14%	6-5
HOU UOOUU	2-4	33%	6-5

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 49% of games with totals 44–50 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	6-4 60%	3-4 43%	1-5 17%
HOU	6-4 60%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 7–4 HOU DEN leads · 11 games since 2004 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN0.0 →−1.8▼ 1.8#23

HOU−2.2 →+0.4▲ 2.6#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

DEN

Longer bar = better

HOU

#17

Offense

HOU better ▶

#11

#30

Defense

HOU better ▶

#20

+0.7 #4

Turnovers

◀ DEN better

+0.4 #10

58 plays #31

Pace

HOU faster ▶

65 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #13	21.1 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #17	5.46 #24	DEN
EPA / play	−0.04 #18	−0.01 #21	Even
Success rate	42% #20	43% #19	Even

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #10	25.5 #29	HOU
Yards / play	5.80 #5	6.07 #31	HOU
EPA / play	+0.03 #9	+0.06 #30	HOU
Success rate	42% #18	47% #31	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	5.8 #8	5.8 #21	11.6 #12	1.8 #32	8.9 #3	10.7 #15
HOU allowed	5.9 #28	3.6 #1	9.5 #7	6.6 #31	4.9 #9	11.5 #25

HOU scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.4 #16	7.5 #12	11.8 #11	4.4 #13	7.4 #8	11.7 #10
DEN allowed	3.2 #7	9.0 #29	12.2 #20	6.5 #30	6.8 #23	13.3 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.