Colts @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff40°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

7-5 · Power #21

final

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

6-6 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -3

✓ CIN W

Total

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 24–27 CIN

✓ CIN (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -3

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCIN -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Line context

Home favorites of 1–5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -3

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 34–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 45, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 2.9; 43.9 points a game (usually 46). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs MIN 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	41–17	W	O47.5
Very close	LAC vs TEN 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	17–14	P	U46.5
Very close	CLE vs PHI 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	22–17	W	U45.5
Very close	ARI vs NO 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	42–34	W	O44
Very close	SEA vs NYG 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	27–13	W	U44.5
Very close	NYG vs DET 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	18–31	L	O44.5
Very close	DEN vs CIN 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	10–15	L	U44
Very close	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Very close	NE vs DET 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	29–0	W	U47
Very close	NE vs SF 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	6–33	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND LWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	1-2
CIN WLLLW	4-3	57%	2-2	2-1

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOO	5-2	71%	7-5
CIN UOOUO	4-3	57%	6-6

Went over in Q4. Of 30 earlier overs in games with totals 42–48, 13% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	6-4 60%	5-2 71%	5-2 71%
CIN	6-4 60%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 9–5 CIN IND leads · 14 games since 1999 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−3.9 →−0.4▲ 3.5#17

CIN−6.0 →−0.8▲ 5.2#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

IND

Longer bar = better

CIN

#16

Offense

Even

#16

#19

Defense

◀ IND better

#28

+0.2 #13

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+0.8 #3

66 plays #10

Pace

◀ IND faster

61 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #8	22.8 #22	IND
Yards / play	5.23 #16	6.10 #32	IND
EPA / play	−0.04 #18	+0.04 #27	IND
Success rate	41% #23	47% #31	IND

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #20	24.7 #27	CIN
Yards / play	5.08 #20	5.13 #12	IND
EPA / play	−0.01 #14	−0.03 #14	Even
Success rate	45% #9	44% #24	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.8 #9	7.5 #11	13.3 #8	4.5 #12	6.5 #11	11.0 #12
CIN allowed	4.0 #12	7.8 #24	11.8 #17	5.4 #24	5.5 #14	10.9 #21

CIN scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.8 #11	5.4 #24	10.3 #21	4.2 #16	5.8 #17	10.0 #21
IND allowed	5.7 #27	7.6 #19	13.3 #29	4.3 #16	6.3 #18	10.7 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.