Rams @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff58°F8 mphgusts 15Wet0.1 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

6-6 · Power #9

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

9-3 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

✓ LAR W

Total

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 20–28 BAL

✓ BAL (75%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -7.5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAL -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -7.5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 7.5-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 37–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 42, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 7.2; 51.4 points a game (usually 47.8). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE vs TEN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7	36–13	W	O43.5
Very close	DAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	43–20	W	O44.5
Very close	BUF vs MIA 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	32–29	L	O42
Very close	PHI vs DAL 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	26–17	W	O42.5
Very close	TB vs LAC 2020 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	38–31	L	O42
Very close	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	24–17	L	O40
Close	BAL vs SEA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-6	37–3	W	U44
Close	LAR vs CHI 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	24–10	W	U44
Close	GB vs LAR 2020 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-7	32–18	W	O45
Close	SF vs SEA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-9	41–23	W	O42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR LLLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	0-2
BAL LWLWW	5-2	71%	3-1	5-2

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR OUUOO	3-4	43%	6-6
BAL OUOOU	4-3	57%	9-3

Went over in Q4. Of 29 earlier overs in games with totals 39–45, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	5-5 50%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
BAL	7-3 70%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAR 4–5 BAL BAL leads · 9 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+7.8 →+0.7▼ 7.1#11

BAL+2.2 →+5.3▲ 3.1#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

LAR

Longer bar = better

BAL

#12

Offense

BAL better ▶

#16

Defense

BAL better ▶

−0.2 #19

Turnovers

BAL better ▶

+0.4 #7

63 plays #18

Pace

Even

63 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	LAR off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #13	15.6 #1	BAL
Yards / play	5.47 #10	4.22 #1	BAL
EPA / play	+0.02 #11	−0.17 #2	BAL
Success rate	44% #12	39% #3	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #7	21.1 #15	BAL
Yards / play	5.77 #6	5.18 #14	BAL
EPA / play	+0.05 #8	−0.02 #19	BAL
Success rate	47% #4	43% #17	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	4.8 #14	6.3 #18	11.0 #16	4.3 #13	6.5 #11	10.8 #15
BAL allowed	1.8 #1	3.8 #2	5.6 #1	2.6 #3	7.2 #25	9.8 #14

BAL scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	7.2 #3	8.1 #8	15.3 #5	6.0 #6	5.8 #20	11.8 #9
LAR allowed	4.9 #22	6.4 #13	11.3 #16	3.3 #10	6.4 #20	9.8 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.