Vikings @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

6-6 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

5-7 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

MIN -3

Push

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 3 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 25–22 LV

✓ MIN (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIN -3

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIN -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIN -3

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 3-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 3–0; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 3 points stayed under 40.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 47%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 2.7; 35 points a game (usually 46). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO @ ATL 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	15–24	L	U42
Very close	JAX @ PIT 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	20–10	W	U41
Very close	HOU @ CAR 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	13–15	L	U43
Very close	WSH @ HOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	23–10	W	U41
Very close	NE @ ARI 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2	27–13	W	U44
Close	CAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	3–25	L	U42.5
Close	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar total & situation	-4	30–20	W	O40
Close	TB @ CLE 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-3	17–23	L	U42
Close	LAC @ NYJ 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & total	-2	27–6	W	U42
Close	BAL @ CHI 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total	-1.5	16–13	W	U41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWWWL	6-1	86%	4-0	1-1
LV LWWWL	6-6	50%	4-2	2-4

Venue/role: MIN away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOUU	2-5	29%	6-6
LV UUUUO	2-9	18%	5-7

Stayed under: it needed 41 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 42% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	6-4 60%	6-1 86%	2-5 29%
LV	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 4–3 LV MIN leads · 7 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.3 →+0.3▲ 0.6#14

LV0.0 →−3.2▼ 3.2#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MIN

Longer bar = better

#13

Offense

◀ MIN better

#24

#10

Defense

◀ MIN better

#22

−0.7 #30

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #28

63 plays #17

Pace

◀ MIN faster

59 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #15	21.3 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #9	5.36 #22	MIN
EPA / play	−0.03 #15	−0.02 #20	MIN
Success rate	43% #13	45% #26	MIN

When LV has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	LV off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	16.8 #27	20.2 #8	MIN
Yards / play	4.85 #25	5.01 #9	MIN
EPA / play	−0.13 #27	−0.06 #10	MIN
Success rate	42% #18	42% #12	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	2.2 #30	8.8 #5	11.0 #16	6.3 #4	4.6 #28	10.9 #14
LV allowed	4.4 #16	7.6 #20	12.0 #17	5.1 #24	4.3 #4	9.3 #10

LV scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.8 #12	5.5 #24	10.3 #22	1.8 #32	4.7 #27	6.5 #31
MIN allowed	3.0 #4	5.8 #10	8.8 #6	6.4 #29	5.0 #9	11.4 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.