Packers @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Mon, Dec 11, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 14 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff39°F11 mphgusts 23DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

6-6 · Power #10

final

Final

New York Giants

4-8 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -5.5

✓ NYG W

Total

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 24–18 NYG

✗ GB (69%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -5.5

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGB -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -5.5

Total37

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 5.5-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NYG won 24–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 37, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 5.2; 41.6 points a game (usually 47.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Close	CIN @ PIT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-5	37–30	W	O39.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	22–7	W	U36.5
Close	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar team ratings	-4	30–20	W	O40
Close	SF @ CAR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	37–15	W	O39.5
Close	NO @ NYJ 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	30–9	W	U42
Close	SF @ CHI 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	33–22	W	O40
Close	GB @ WSH 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	21–23	L	O41.5
Loose	NE @ NYG 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & total	-4.5	7–10	L	U36
Loose	NE @ MIA 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6	24–33	L	O41

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WLWWW	5-3	63%	2-2	1-0
NYG PLLWW	4-2-1	67%	2-0-1	4-2-1

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UOUOO	3-5	38%	6-6
NYG UUOOU	2-5	29%	4-8

Went over in Q4. Of 17 earlier overs in games with totals 34–40, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	3-5 38%
NYG	3-7 30%	4-2-1 67%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

GB 8–7 NYG GB leads · 15 games since 2001 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+5.2 →−0.3▼ 5.5#16

NYG−9.1 →−5.5▲ 3.6#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

NYG

#14

Offense

◀ GB better

#31

#18

Defense

◀ GB better

#25

+0.1 #14

Turnovers

NYG better ▶

+0.4 #8

61 plays #24

Pace

NYG faster ▶

62 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #19	24.3 #26	GB
Yards / play	5.40 #12	5.70 #29	GB
EPA / play	+0.02 #10	−0.02 #20	GB
Success rate	43% #13	45% #26	GB

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	NYG off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	13.3 #31	20.3 #11	GB
Yards / play	4.14 #31	5.20 #15	GB
EPA / play	−0.22 #31	0.00 #22	GB
Success rate	37% #31	44% #24	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	3.9 #21	4.1 #31	8.0 #27	7.6 #2	5.9 #19	13.5 #4
NYG allowed	5.3 #26	8.2 #28	13.5 #30	6.1 #28	4.5 #7	10.6 #19

NYG scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	1.3 #32	3.9 #32	5.3 #32	3.1 #27	4.9 #24	8.0 #27
GB allowed	4.7 #18	6.2 #12	10.8 #12	4.3 #16	5.1 #11	9.4 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.