Steelers @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sat, Dec 16, 2023, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh Steelers

7-6 · Power #19

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

7-6 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -1

✓ IND W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

PIT 24–25 IND

✓ IND (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -1

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIND -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -1

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 1-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 30–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 42%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 1.8; 41.7 points a game (usually 44.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs PIT 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	16–19	L	U42.5
Very close	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5
Very close	LV vs DEN 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	17–13	W	U41.5
Very close	WSH vs CLE 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	10–24	L	U41
Very close	HOU vs TB 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	39–37	L	O39.5
Close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Close	CAR vs CHI 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	16–23	L	U45
Close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Close	NYG vs CAR 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	19–16	W	U43.5
Close	NO vs LAR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	27–20	W	O39

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT WLWLL	5-4	56%	3-1	2-2
IND WWWWL	5-3	63%	2-1	4-0

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT OUUUO	2-6-1	25%	7-6
IND UUOOO	6-2	75%	7-6

Went over in Q4. Of 31 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	5-5 50%	4-4 50%	2-5-1 29%
IND	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PIT 12–4 IND PIT leads · 16 games since 2002 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−7.9 →−2.0▲ 5.9#24

IND−3.9 →−1.0▲ 2.9#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

PIT

Longer bar = better

IND

#26

Offense

IND better ▶

#15

#12

Defense

◀ PIT better

#21

+0.8 #3

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

+0.1 #13

60 plays #26

Pace

IND faster ▶

65 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	16.2 #28	25.4 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.85 #26	5.23 #15	IND
EPA / play	−0.11 #25	−0.02 #17	IND
Success rate	41% #23	44% #24	Even

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #8	19.2 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #16	5.32 #21	IND
EPA / play	−0.04 #16	−0.05 #12	Even
Success rate	41% #19	41% #8	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.6 #27	4.2 #30	6.8 #30	4.1 #19	5.3 #22	9.4 #24
IND allowed	5.8 #30	7.5 #19	13.3 #29	5.1 #22	6.3 #17	11.4 #22

IND scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.3 #10	8.0 #8	13.3 #7	4.2 #15	6.0 #20	10.2 #21
PIT allowed	5.4 #27	6.8 #17	12.2 #21	3.6 #11	3.4 #2	7.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.