Texans @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sun, Dec 17, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Tennessee Titans · Division game

Weather at kickoff51°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

7-6 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee Titans

5-8 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

TEN -3

✓ HOU W

Total

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 21–24 TEN

✗ TEN (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEN -3

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTEN -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 76%, covered 59% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTEN -3

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEN as a 3-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 19–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 38, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 2.8; 39.5 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–24	L	O37
Very close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Very close	PIT vs GB 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	23–19	W	O38
Very close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Very close	PIT vs BAL 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	14–16	L	U36.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	19–13	W	U40
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	CLE vs JAX 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	31–27	W	O37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLLWL	3-5	38%	1-2	2-1
TEN LLWLW	3-5	38%	2-1	1-0

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; TEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OUUUO	3-5	38%	7-6
TEN UOUOO	4-3-1	57%	5-8

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 51% of games with totals 35–41 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	6-4 60%	3-5 38%	3-5 38%
TEN	4-6 40%	3-5 38%	4-3-1 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 25–24 TEN HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−2.2 →−0.4▲ 1.8#16

TEN−0.8 →−2.4▼ 1.6#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

HOU

Longer bar = better

TEN

#15

Offense

◀ HOU better

#22

#18

Defense

Even

#20

+0.6 #4

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.5 #27

64 plays #18

Pace

◀ HOU faster

59 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #13	21.7 #17	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #8	5.26 #16	HOU
EPA / play	−0.01 #13	+0.01 #26	HOU
Success rate	40% #24	43% #19	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #26	21.5 #16	HOU
Yards / play	5.10 #21	5.39 #22	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	−0.02 #18	Even
Success rate	40% #26	42% #14	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5 #14	6.5 #16	11.0 #17	4.4 #14	6.7 #11	11.1 #13
TEN allowed	4.3 #14	4.9 #5	9.2 #7	5.8 #28	6.2 #17	12.0 #25

TEN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.5 #23	6.5 #17	9.9 #23	4.0 #19	4.2 #29	8.2 #27
HOU allowed	5.0 #23	3.3 #1	8.3 #4	7.2 #32	5.9 #14	13.2 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.