Jets @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sun, Dec 17, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Miami Dolphins · Division game

Weather at kickoff77°F16 mphgusts 32DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New York Jets

5-8 · Power #26

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

9-4 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -7

✓ MIA W

Total

35.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 19–26 MIA

✓ MIA (75%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -7

Total35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close35.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -7

Total35.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 7-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 30–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 35.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 7.1; 40.3 points a game (usually 47.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF vs NYJ 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	32–6	W	U39
Close	SF vs WSH 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	37–20	W	O37.5
Close	BAL vs ATL 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	17–9	W	U35.5
Loose	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	24–17	L	O40
Loose	NO vs CAR 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	28–6	W	U38.5
Loose	NE vs CHI 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form	-8.5	14–33	L	O40
Loose	NO vs CAR 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar spread & rest	-7	18–10	W	U37
Loose	ARI vs CAR 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & rest	-7	10–34	L	O41.5
Loose	CLE vs ARI 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–0	W	U38.5
Loose	CLE vs NYJ 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	30–31	L	O39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ LLLLW	2-5-1	29%	0-2-1	2-4
MIA LLWWL	4-4	50%	2-2	4-3

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UUOUO	2-6	25%	5-8
MIA UUOOO	5-3	63%	9-4

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 44% of games with totals 32.5–38.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	4-6 40%	2-5-1 29%	2-6 25%
MIA	6-4 60%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NYJ 26–28 MIA MIA leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2023	Miami Dolphins 34 @ New York Jets 13	MIA -8.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ+1.0 →−2.4▼ 3.4#26

MIA+2.1 →+4.3▲ 2.2#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

NYJ

Longer bar = better

MIA

#31

Offense

MIA better ▶

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#14

−0.4 #24

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

−0.2 #20

60 plays #26

Pace

MIA faster ▶

63 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	NYJ off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #29	22.6 #21	MIA
Yards / play	4.43 #30	4.95 #8	MIA
EPA / play	−0.24 #32	−0.06 #10	MIA
Success rate	35% #32	43% #16	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #2	19.8 #7	MIA
Yards / play	6.73 #2	4.54 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.13 #2	−0.10 #5	Even
Success rate	49% #3	38% #2	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	1.5 #31	4.7 #27	6.2 #31	3.4 #26	5.2 #22	8.5 #26
MIA allowed	5.3 #27	7.7 #21	13.0 #26	3.2 #5	6.5 #20	9.6 #10

MIA scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.3 #3	10.6 #3	16.9 #2	7.3 #1	7.4 #7	14.7 #1
NYJ allowed	5.6 #29	6.5 #14	12.1 #19	3.4 #9	4.3 #4	7.7 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.