Cowboys @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Sun, Dec 24, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff73°F11 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

10-4 · Power #3

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

10-4 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -1.5

✓ MIA W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 26–28 MIA

✓ MIA (55%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -1.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 58% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -1.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 1.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 22–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 2.2; 47.2 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs DAL 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	31–10	W	U49
Very close	KC vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-2	23–20	W	U48.5
Very close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Very close	BUF vs BAL 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–3	W	U50
Very close	TB vs KC 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	31–41	L	O47.5
Very close	TB vs LAR 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-3	27–30	L	O48
Very close	TEN vs PIT 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1	24–27	L	O50.5
Close	CLE vs ARI 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-3	14–37	L	O48.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-2	17–20	L	U49
Close	SEA vs LAR 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	20–9	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WWLWL	6-3	67%	2-2	0-2
MIA LWWLW	5-4	56%	3-2	5-3

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL UOOUU	5-4	56%	10-4
MIA UOOOU	5-4	56%	10-4

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 44% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%
MIA	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DAL 5–2 MIA DAL leads · 7 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+9.1 →+5.5▼ 3.6#3

MIA+2.1 →+4.8▲ 2.7#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

DAL

Longer bar = better

MIA

Offense

Even

Defense

Even

+0.6 #3

Turnovers

◀ DAL better

+0.1 #14

66 plays #4

Pace

◀ DAL faster

63 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #2	21.0 #14	DAL
Yards / play	5.54 #8	4.75 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.10 #4	−0.10 #5	Even
Success rate	46% #5	41% #10	DAL

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #1	18.9 #5	Even
Yards / play	6.63 #2	4.94 #9	MIA
EPA / play	+0.12 #3	−0.12 #3	Even
Success rate	48% #3	43% #16	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	7.7 #1	10.9 #2	18.6 #1	3.5 #23	8.6 #1	12.1 #7
MIA allowed	4.9 #24	7.1 #19	12.1 #20	2.9 #4	6.0 #16	8.9 #9

MIA scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.4 #4	11.1 #1	17.4 #2	7.0 #2	7.1 #9	14.1 #2
DAL allowed	3.6 #9	6.9 #15	10.4 #14	4.5 #16	3.9 #3	8.4 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.