Lions @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sat, Dec 30, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

11-4 · Power #6

final

Final

Dallas Cowboys

10-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

✓ DET W

Total

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 25–29 DAL

✓ DAL (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -4.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDAL -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (65 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -4.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 4.5-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: DAL won 20–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 53, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.1 against an average line of 3.5; 54.7 points a game (usually 46.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL vs PHI 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	33–13	W	U52.5
Very close	DAL vs SF 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	17–23	L	U51.5
Very close	DAL vs ARI 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	22–25	L	U52.5
Very close	GB vs TEN 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3	40–14	W	O52.5
Very close	ARI vs LAR 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3	23–30	L	O51
Very close	GB vs TB 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-3	26–31	L	O53.5
Close	IND vs TEN 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	26–45	L	O51.5
Close	TB vs NO 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & rest	-3	3–38	L	U51
Close	TEN vs CLE 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-4	35–41	L	O54
Close	KC vs BUF 2020 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & rest	-3	38–24	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET LWLWW	6-4	60%	4-2	0-1
DAL WLWLL	6-4	60%	4-1	6-1

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOUOO	7-3	70%	11-4
DAL OOUUU	5-5	50%	10-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
DAL	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DET 7–11 DAL DAL leads · 18 games since 2001 · DET has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.7 →+3.0▲ 1.3#7

DAL+9.1 →+5.4▼ 3.7#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

DET

Longer bar = better

DAL

Offense

Even

#20

Defense

DAL better ▶

#10

−0.1 #19

Turnovers

DAL better ▶

+0.5 #7

68 plays #2

Pace

Even

66 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #5	19.1 #5	Even
Yards / play	5.83 #3	5.01 #10	DET
EPA / play	+0.07 #6	−0.11 #3	Even
Success rate	46% #6	43% #21	DET

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #2	23.7 #24	DAL
Yards / play	5.54 #7	5.39 #22	DAL
EPA / play	+0.10 #4	−0.03 #17	DAL
Success rate	46% #5	43% #16	DAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	6.3 #4	9.3 #5	15.6 #3	3.9 #22	7.9 #5	11.9 #12
DAL allowed	3.5 #9	7.1 #19	10.6 #13	4.6 #17	3.9 #3	8.5 #6

DAL scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	7.7 #1	10.2 #3	17.9 #1	3.5 #23	8.7 #2	12.2 #8
DET allowed	4.7 #21	5.7 #8	10.4 #12	6.7 #31	6.1 #16	12.9 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.