Falcons @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff33°F12 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

7-8 · Power #24

final

Final

Chicago Bears

6-9 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -2.5

✓ CHI W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 20–23 CHI

✓ CHI (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCHI -2.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCHI -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCHI -2.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 2.5-point home favorite against ATL, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 37–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 39.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 2.8; 45.2 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs TB 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	39–37	L	O39.5
Very close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Very close	CIN vs MIN 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–24	P	O41.5
Very close	PIT vs GB 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	23–19	W	O38
Very close	TEN vs MIA 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	34–3	W	U41
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	TEN vs DEN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Very close	CLE vs JAX 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	31–27	W	O37.5
Very close	TEN vs HOU 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–19	L	U38

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL WWLLW	4-6	40%	2-3	2-0
CHI WWWLW	6-5	55%	3-2	1-1

Venue/role: ATL away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UUOUU	4-6	40%	7-8
CHI OUUUO	4-6-1	40%	6-9

Went over in Q4. Of 35 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
CHI	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 4–8 CHI CHI leads · 12 games since 2001 · CHI has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL+2.1 →−0.8▼ 2.9#17

CHI−5.2 →−0.9▲ 4.3#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ATL

Longer bar = better

CHI

#21

Offense

Even

#21

Defense

◀ ATL better

#14

−0.3 #23

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #20

65 plays #10

Pace

Even

65 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	ATL off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	19.1 #24	23.0 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.13 #17	5.21 #16	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #23	−0.06 #12	CHI
Success rate	41% #18	41% #7	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	CHI off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #22	19.2 #6	ATL
Yards / play	4.98 #23	4.86 #7	ATL
EPA / play	−0.06 #20	−0.09 #5	ATL
Success rate	42% #17	39% #3	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	3.1 #24	5.4 #23	8.5 #27	3.0 #28	7.6 #6	10.6 #19
CHI allowed	3.7 #11	7.9 #25	11.6 #19	4.3 #14	7.1 #25	11.4 #21

CHI scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	4.1 #19	6.9 #14	11.0 #14	4.5 #15	5.5 #23	9.9 #22
ATL allowed	3.4 #5	6.9 #18	10.3 #13	4.7 #17	4.1 #3	8.9 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.