Panthers @ Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Jacksonville Jaguars

Weather at kickoff56°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

2-13 · Power #31

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

8-7 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

✓ JAX W

Total

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 19–23 JAX

✓ JAX (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -3.5

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJAX -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 59% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJAX -3.5

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 3.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 26–0; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 38, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 3.1; 38.4 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs CAR 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	21–18	L	O37
Very close	TEN vs CAR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	17–10	W	U36
Very close	CHI vs CAR 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	16–13	L	U38
Very close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	13–16	L	U40.5
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–24	L	O37
Very close	IND vs HOU 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	31–32	L	O37.5
Very close	NO vs LAR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	27–20	W	O39
Very close	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–17	L	U40
Very close	LV vs NYG 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	30–6	W	U38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWLWW	5-5	50%	2-3	5-5
JAX WLLLL	5-5	50%	2-3	4-2

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR UOUUO	3-7	30%	2-13
JAX UOOUU	5-5	50%	8-7

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 35–41 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
JAX	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 4–4 JAX Series tied · 8 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−2.1 →−4.2▼ 2.1#30

JAX+3.9 →−0.1▼ 4.0#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

CAR

Longer bar = better

JAX

#30

Offense

JAX better ▶

#17

#23

Defense

Even

#21

−0.4 #24

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #21

66 plays #4

Pace

Even

66 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	CAR off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #29	22.9 #20	JAX
Yards / play	4.22 #32	5.54 #25	JAX
EPA / play	−0.16 #29	−0.02 #19	JAX
Success rate	38% #30	43% #18	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #13	25.4 #30	JAX
Yards / play	5.17 #15	5.00 #9	CAR
EPA / play	−0.08 #22	+0.03 #26	Even
Success rate	42% #16	45% #25	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	2.5 #30	4.5 #31	6.9 #30	3.3 #26	5.5 #22	8.8 #25
JAX allowed	2.4 #2	6.3 #12	8.7 #4	6.5 #29	7.5 #27	13.9 #32

JAX scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	3.7 #22	6.0 #21	9.7 #23	6.3 #4	6.1 #19	12.4 #6
CAR allowed	3.4 #5	10.1 #32	13.5 #29	4.1 #12	7.9 #30	11.9 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.