Titans @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Houston Texans · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

5-10 · Power #27

final

Final

Houston Texans

8-7 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -5.5

✓ HOU W

Total

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 21–27 HOU

✓ HOU (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -5.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHOU -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -5.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 5.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: HOU won 26–3; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 44, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 6.1; 41.4 points a game (usually 46.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SEA vs LAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	19–16	L	U43
Very close	SEA vs WSH 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	29–26	L	O44
Very close	LV vs CHI 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	9–20	L	U46
Very close	TEN vs CHI 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	24–17	W	U46.5
Very close	MIA vs PIT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	16–10	L	U44
Very close	LAC vs CAR 2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	16–21	L	U43.5
Very close	LAC vs LAR 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	31–10	W	P41
Very close	HOU vs CIN 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	31–37	L	O45.5
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5
Very close	NO vs ATL 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-5	21–18	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WLWLP	3-6-1	33%	1-3	2-5-1
HOU LWLWL	4-6	40%	2-4	1-4

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN UOOUU	4-5-1	44%	5-10
HOU UUOUO	4-6	40%	8-7

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 44% of games with totals 41–47 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	4-5-1 44%
HOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TEN 24–25 HOU HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 17 2023	Houston Texans 19 @ Tennessee Titans 16	TEN -3	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−0.8 →−2.8▼ 2.0#27

HOU−2.2 →−0.6▲ 1.6#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

TEN

Longer bar = better

HOU

#24

Offense

HOU better ▶

#17

#18

Defense

Even

#16

−0.4 #25

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.5 #6

60 plays #29

Pace

HOU faster ▶

64 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	TEN off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #27	22.1 #17	HOU
Yards / play	4.92 #26	5.26 #18	HOU
EPA / play	−0.03 #15	−0.02 #18	Even
Success rate	40% #26	41% #11	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #15	21.4 #14	Even
Yards / play	5.39 #12	5.18 #15	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #17	+0.01 #23	HOU
Success rate	40% #25	43% #19	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.4 #23	6.7 #15	10.1 #19	3.5 #23	4.3 #28	7.7 #27
HOU allowed	5.2 #25	4.3 #1	9.5 #8	6.7 #31	5.9 #13	12.5 #27

HOU scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	3.9 #21	6.3 #18	10.2 #17	4.2 #20	7.3 #7	11.5 #13
TEN allowed	3.7 #12	4.7 #3	8.4 #3	5.7 #26	6.7 #22	12.4 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.