Dolphins @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Baltimore Ravens

Weather at kickoff47°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

11-4 · Power #7

final

Final

Baltimore Ravens

12-3 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAL -3

✓ BAL W

Total

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 24–27 BAL

✓ BAL (60%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -3

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAL -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 75%, covered 59% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -3

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 3-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 56–19; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 47, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 3; 53.9 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF vs DAL 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	19–12	W	U46.5
Very close	TB vs LAR 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-3	27–30	L	O48
Very close	TB vs KC 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	31–41	L	O47.5
Very close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Very close	BUF vs DAL 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	31–10	W	U49
Very close	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	47–42	W	O47
Very close	ARI vs IND 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–22	L	U48
Very close	PHI vs SF 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	31–7	W	U44.5
Very close	TB vs LAR 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	24–27	L	O47.5
Very close	PHI vs DAL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	28–23	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WWLWW	6-4	60%	2-1	0-1
BAL WWLWW	7-3	70%	3-2	6-3

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OOOUU	5-5	50%	11-4
BAL OUOUO	6-4	60%	12-3

Went over in Q3. Of 33 earlier overs in games with totals 44–50, 18% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BAL	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 7–12 BAL BAL leads · 19 games since 2000 · BAL has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+2.1 →+4.9▲ 2.8#4

BAL+2.2 →+5.9▲ 3.7#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MIA

Longer bar = better

BAL

Offense

Even

Defense

BAL better ▶

+0.2 #12

Turnovers

BAL better ▶

+0.7 #3

63 plays #19

Pace

Even

64 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #1	16.3 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.57 #2	4.55 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.12 #3	−0.15 #2	Even
Success rate	48% #3	40% #6	Even

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #4	20.9 #13	BAL
Yards / play	5.79 #4	4.81 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #7	−0.09 #7	Even
Success rate	47% #4	42% #12	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.1 #4	11.0 #1	17.1 #2	6.9 #1	6.8 #11	13.7 #2
BAL allowed	2.0 #1	4.6 #2	6.6 #1	2.7 #3	6.8 #23	9.5 #10

BAL scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	6.6 #2	8.5 #8	15.1 #4	6.1 #6	6.2 #16	12.3 #7
MIA allowed	5.1 #24	6.7 #16	11.7 #20	2.9 #4	6.3 #16	9.2 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.