Bengals @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff37°F11 mphgusts 21DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

8-7 · Power #17

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

9-6 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -7.5

✓ KC W

Total

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 18–26 KC

✓ KC (75%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -7.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKC -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -7.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 7.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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games

This game: KC won 25–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 46, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 7.4; 46.2 points a game (usually 47.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs IND 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–25	L	O46.5
Very close	LAR vs SEA 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	20–10	W	U47
Very close	GB vs CLE 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-8	24–22	L	U47
Very close	IND vs CIN 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–27	L	O45.5
Very close	GB vs NYJ 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-8	10–27	L	U44.5
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5
Very close	PHI vs GB 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	40–33	W	O46
Very close	SF vs LAC 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-8	22–16	L	U45.5
Very close	PIT vs CIN 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	36–10	W	U46.5
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	26–9	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWWPL	5-4-1	56%	2-2	2-2
KC WLLPL	4-5-1	44%	2-3	3-5-1

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UOOOO	7-3	70%	8-7
KC OOUOU	4-6	40%	9-6

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 47% of games with totals 43–49 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	7-3 70%
KC	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 9–6 KC CIN leads · 15 games since 2003 · KC has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−6.0 →−1.1▲ 4.9#19

KC−1.7 →+3.6▲ 5.3#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

CIN

Longer bar = better

#14

Offense

KC better ▶

#10

#29

Defense

KC better ▶

+0.5 #4

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

−0.7 #31

61 plays #25

Pace

KC faster ▶

65 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	CIN off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #20	17.7 #2	KC
Yards / play	5.27 #14	4.82 #6	KC
EPA / play	−0.01 #13	−0.07 #9	Even
Success rate	45% #9	40% #5	Even

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #11	23.0 #21	KC
Yards / play	5.51 #9	6.06 #32	KC
EPA / play	+0.03 #10	+0.05 #30	KC
Success rate	45% #8	47% #31	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.5 #15	4.8 #28	9.3 #24	5.0 #9	6.5 #16	11.5 #12
KC allowed	3.4 #7	6.3 #11	9.7 #8	3.5 #8	4.5 #5	8.0 #3

KC scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.3 #17	10.4 #2	14.7 #6	4.5 #15	3.1 #32	7.5 #28
CIN allowed	4.1 #15	8.3 #26	12.5 #23	5.5 #24	5.1 #8	10.5 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.